Of COURSE the market is manipulated. This is the way the game has always been played. Those who want to accumulate sell, which induces selling, which induces selling. When they have enough, they mark it up. Marking it up induces buying, and those who bought cheaper keep buying so as to draw interest. Eventually, the merchandise is distributed to those who sold low but now want to buy now that is higher. Those who accumulated low will sell all they have and more. What they sold short will be bought back cheaper. And so it goes... Accumulation, marking it up, distribution, marking it down--some things never change. Classic technical analysis written down a century ago is still true. Indeed, as Solomon said, there really IS nothing new under the sun.
With all due respect, your comments are rather naive. It doesn't matter whether a market was PUSHED down or PUSHED up by program trading. Program trading accounts for over 60% of the volume in the markets anyway. You appear to place a lot of weight on the SPEED at which a market makes it moves as to whether or not the move was technically based . . . yet you provide absolutely no evidence that there is any kind of correlation to that effect whatsoever. All you can do is say . . . "it doesn't add up." Welcome to the 21st Century my friend. It's called "short-covering".
If you find consiracy in todays action, then maybe you should stick to your full-time job of being a crime fighter. I would love being a super-hero myself, trading can be quite boring at times.
Amen. If we rally from here and get even semi-close to the October highs, I can't imagine the amount of whining and blameshifting we'll hear from the permabears. And when anything gets too easy, like buying dips (for much of 2004 to 2006) or shorting rallies (since late October), you can bet it will stop working when the masses catch on.
No, I do not believe mkt is manipulated. There are many reasons for the price action, some of which have been presented above and more are available if you decide to engage your brain cells. Otoh, I could care less if it is manipulated as long as I can find a way to follow the action & harvest profits. Sounds like you: - haven't read 'Reminiscences' (his mkt was rigged but he still found a way...) - can't figure out how to make a profit. I suspect your struggles will continue as long as you remain in victim mode.... Very true - and yet you had to post it anyway .... R
For those that believe in "conspiracy" theories . . . We suspect that most persons aware of, but not familiar with, program trading might assume that hedge funds and index arbitrage are driving forces behind program trading. The data reported by the NYSE negates this commonly held viewpoint. http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...tor&ArticleId=NS20071207140149AheadOfTheCurve
Hey! I am a perma-bear and that is offensive! Actually, this permabear is essentially flat now and would love to "whine and blameshift" about another chance to sell October highs
cool guys, maybe you're right about shorts covering. still very interesting and difficult not to be skeptic at what happend and how it happend. this was a thread to analyse what happend, not about who made money who lost money bla bla. ASusilovic, mainly arbitrage - converts/credit/options, volatility arbitrage, fundamental investing with a private equity approach - lot of meetings with actual company boards etc. the most successful strategy Ive seen with my own eyes was a stat arb on global equities with a small group of quants and a trader. I truly honestly have never met a trader who used technical analysis. thanks for your post RL8093 maybe I learnt something today. - ps. im not a trader. But I do beleives markets are manipulated from what I know. maybe it wasn't today. but they do happen, although it shouldn't bother small traders.