Market is churning...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Trend Fader, Nov 14, 2005.

  1. you just had a 12 day run --- what more do you want!!! LOL!!!

    fear and GREED! :D
    #11     Nov 14, 2005
  2. “I am betting on a swift reversal to the downside coming soon.”

    With options expirations this week, there should be some volatile moves. We are approaching overhead resistance in the SP-500:

    1243: Sep05 High
    1246: Aug05 High
    1254: 0.618 Fib Retracement from Oct02 Low to Mar00 High

    The following scenarios assume that it’s more likely that “they” will test overhead resistance (i.e., stay in the direction of the current trend) before they take it down.

    1. A test of 1246, a slight pullback, then a test of 1254, and then a major reversal.

    2. A test of 1246, a slight pullback, then a test of 1254, a slight pullback, and then a major breakout.

    3. A test of 1246 and then a major reversal to test the bottom of the current range.
    #12     Nov 14, 2005
  3. fwiw...It's obvious that the markets have risen sharply and are TECHNICALLY oversold.

    but I am somewhat cautious about shorting now.

    There has been a lot of FUNDAMENTALLY excellent news recently.

    GDP up to 3.8%
    Unemployment is excellent
    last 10year treasury auction turned away lenders
    New Fed boss Bernacke well received
    Us Dollar up big recently
    Last months deficit less than expected
    Oil prices falling
    Corporate profits still good
    World wide markets rising

    And of course, we are in a period of great Bullish seasonality.
    #13     Nov 14, 2005
  4. Do you mean technically overbought?

    I agree on your points. Even though we've had an extended rally I'm nervous about shorting this market.

    "Don't fight the tape." Or, as one trader always used to yell at a coworker of mine, "You're not bigger than the market!!!!"
    #14     Nov 14, 2005
  5. yes we are over-BOUGHT

    #15     Nov 14, 2005
  6. Thats why the S&P is up 60 points off the lows in the past few weeks.

    Everything u mentioned is baked in to the cake.. now lets look forward..
    #16     Nov 14, 2005

  7. When that happens it means big caps are being bought. Advance decline line has many more non big caps then big caps. When non big caps are sold this will affect the decline line like a big cap but the volume is much lower on most of these and it does not come out of volume same way.


    #17     Nov 14, 2005
  8. Announcing your bearish/bullish sentiment without a time horizon makes a discussion virtually worthless...
    #18     Nov 14, 2005
  9. No it doesnt.. i posted my trades... options are expiring friday.
    #19     Nov 14, 2005
  10. cool explanation , thanks for the info
    #20     Nov 14, 2005