Markets cannot by definition be 'rational' as there'd be no order flow-it is just a bunch of opinions, unlike other commerce- selling cars etc. It's complicated but you can be both right and wrong long and short and make money
The market is irrational if it doesn't do what you expect it to do. Good grief. You don't lead the market.IT LEADS !!!! What you know is the recent past. What you are expecting to know is the near future. Put out your sign and go into business, PSYCHIC
No -- and in fact, the opposite. This is the very nature of voluntary exchange, and why trade improves lives. The weaver eats better when they trade blankets to the farmer; the farmer sleeps warmer when he trades pigs to the weaver. The marvel of The Invisible Hand is that, through unfettered prices and voluntary exchange of rational actors, resources move through the market improving utility for all.