Market has topped on 2019/11/07. Get the hell out now.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by noddyboy, Nov 8, 2019.

  1. bone

    bone

    Your argument has lukewarm merit - in many ways interest rates are less powerful these days than they were in the past.

    The BoJ held negative interest rates for a decade and the Nikkei certainly wasn't setting records for the time - quite the opposite.

    The EU equity markets have been consistently lagging US equity markets and the US TY yields are something like 2.25 points higher than the Bund - just off the highs for the spread set in late 2018. Compare US versus EU interest rate yields and then overlay the S&P 500 with the DJ EuroStoxx.

     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
    #21     Nov 8, 2019
  2. In 2007-2008 how many people were saying “Nothing like the safety of blue chip stocks with solid dividends, like GM AIG GE FNMA etc etc”
     
    #22     Nov 8, 2019
    ironchef likes this.
  3. noddyboy

    noddyboy

    I don't think so. I think the world will be just fine. It was just overvalued but banks will still be around.
     
    #23     Nov 8, 2019
    trader99 likes this.
  4. Nine_Ender

    Nine_Ender

    That approach in 1999 on the Nasdaq would have been a huge money loser. Some would argue the Nasdaq was hugely overvalued Jan 1, 1999. It went up 85% that year.
     
    #24     Nov 8, 2019
    trader99 and noddyboy like this.
  5. LanceJ

    LanceJ

    Top, right. The fed is keeping a lid on money market rates so the bears can borrow for margin calls at reasonable rates while the next leg continues up.
     
    #25     Nov 9, 2019
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Thursday's Dow high was 58 calendar days from previous high - which was 58 calendar days from the one before that. Actually 58th day is today but close enough for gubmint work.
     
    #26     Nov 9, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  7. maxinger

    maxinger

    And after u close your investment, market continue to go even higher
     
    #27     Nov 9, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  8. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    What is the significance of 58 days? A series of 1?
    Seems like nothing but a speculation rather than a repeating pattern to me.
     
    #28     Nov 9, 2019
  9. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    The prior two H-H swings were 57 and 84 (which is roughly 1.5 times).

    Not calling a top like others, just pointing this out.
     
    #29     Nov 9, 2019
    tommcginnis likes this.
  10. ET180

    ET180

    What if the cause of that 1500 mark was the election of a politician that imposed 50% federal income tax bracket at $100k and 6% annual wealth tax on any wealth over $1M? I can think of situations that would change my investment outlook, even at 1500 S&P.
     
    #30     Nov 9, 2019