Not to hijack a thread, but I'm going to declare a short of the ES (DEC) at 3022, putting me $60 underwater. So, with the market ~3082, I'm going to NOV22 and sell a 3030 -0.21δ put for $8.75. My BE is now ~3030 (3030.75). If the market goes to 3022; the FUT will be $0; the put will be -$8.00; the position will be +$0.75, without commissions. Stay tuned! (If you're thinking this sounds familiar, ... https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/what-should-i-do-with-this-trade.337600/ ) So, two weeks ago, the market closed at 3022, and has risen 60pts in 10 trading days -- 6pts a day. Comparatively, accepting the premium of an $8.75 put expiring in ten market days requires the market to gain less than 0.875pts per day through that time, just to break even. (Well, there's also the potential for the market to sink some, affording an opportunity to improve one's position, should that come up...) Thus, while this sub-thread might appear to be about a covered-put tale, it's much more about revenue-generation versus market movement. My own expectation is that a sizeable dent can be made in the current $60 loss -- to the point where the entire position can be vacated with the retirement of the DEC19 future contract. If I can cut the loss in half, though? I'd call that pretty good. Regardless, it should be entertaining......
If the SPX drops to 1500s I'd mortgage my house to buy blue chip shares. Dividends alone would cover the interest.
If the S&P fell to 1500 in short order there probably won't be any banks around that would offer you a mortgage.
You guys have no imagination: The SP 500 cash index will top out at 3224.67 on Monday, January 13, 2020 at 9:57 am before declining to 2321.76 on Friday, March 26th, 2021 at 3:55 pm. Unless, of course, Trump gets reelected! For my market forecast if Trump gets reelected, send $1.00 for my newsletter to: MaximumPossibleSuffering C/O Happy Camper Nursing Home 2 Bladerunner Way Naples, FL 39040
Rightfully so. The number of threads calling for a market top since 2008 has got to number in the many hundreds. If you've been using overbought/oversold oscillators or market cyclical wave count studies - you've been bankrupted. A dozen times over. The market won't come off in any sort of sustained, meaningful way until corporate earnings disappoint over multiple sectors. Just look at what happened in December of 2018 - selling on trade dispute rumors and Fed rate cut speculation couldn't persist. Earnings and expected earnings drive share prices.
The main force behind this market advance is low interest rates. The ten years is coming back up but it was pretty low. Also factor in the talk of neg interests rates and stocks still look very cheap. Especially stocks that have an up side and pay dividends.