Discussion in 'Trading' started by noddyboy, Nov 8, 2019.
Yes we have.
Another, we have topped call. You do realize we could easily see 3100, 3200... before crash does happen.
Make sure you have enough margin to still be short at 3300.
I don't know if we've hit a top. It'd be foolish to say.
What happened today? Nothing really in the market so far. Big earnings are next week that will determine how the indexes behave for the next month or so. We have tax season coming up so closing out losers by the end of December will be happening. Window dressing from hedge funds, etc.
The only thing that happened today is exactly what I called a few days ago. Market is elated there is apparently some hope China and the US come to an agreement, and now the market is pissed off that Trump lied to them again. That's all so far. Volatility is still heading down further despite the market dropping.
We have certain standards around here, that are *not* being met:
• Is the top *today's* top, or the close?
• Is the top subject to (infamous) ±X% riders, such that the actual top claimed is 3127.258?
• Hell! Which market?!?!?
• For how long is this "Top!" claim good? Next week? Next year? Next Global Extinction Event?
• Is there an explicit Bottom target, with implied calendar-length, and ±X% rider?
• If there's no Bottom target, are you assuming a Global Financial Meltdown, and a return to pitchforks and torches, and forecasting via chicken-guts & tea leaves? (In the dark.)
• Are you buying calls or puts. I mean, *really*. Be straight with us.
And since *when* exactly, has that ever stopped anyone before???
Round numbers , 3100 in this case, tend to act as magnets for indices. I wouldn't bet against it here.
Keep it simple guys. Stop hating.
Sell now. Stop at 10% or around 3400. Target is -60%.
So 6:1 profit:loss ratio. Pretty awesome to me.
Save yourself the usual arguments it is too hard because you have to decide when to get back it, when to short, when to stop, when to take profits. All the info is here.
With all *due* respect to your obvious forecasting chops, sir, I'm sure we can all see the market hitting 3400 and 1800 at some point...
The question is, in what order???
Down first then up is my stated view.
Apparently there are no bears left to support my argument.
I'm pretty bearish on the market if you check my post history.
However, I just find calling tops stupid, for one, and two it's very hard to say if the market has any juice left because big earnings are coming in the next few weeks. I don't think technical analysis is very useful here. You have to go out and see what is going on in the underlying market(s).
Separate names with a comma.