Market Extremes: foreseen, seen, and hindsight

Discussion in 'Trading' started by billbob, Mar 25, 2010.

  1. billbob


    I would like to welcome the bear from his hibernation! Those who still doubt, time will tell.

    Anticipating market extremes is a hallmark of great market operators. Those who foresee multiple extremes have greater minds that those who can see extremes as soon as they happen, who in their turn have greater minds than those who see things only in hindsight.

    Any answers to these two questions (Provide evidence in your answer):

    1. List those who foresaw the end of this bull leg before it happened today? Limit yourself to those who also foresaw the bottom of last spring.

    2. List those who saw the top when it happened today---Limit yourself to those who were successful at the other extreme to reduce the effect of luck.

    As for those who get things in hindsight, no need to search for them because they are the vast majority: Anyone picked in random has a 90% chance to be one of them.
  2. one point i would like to make that it matters how many unfulfilled calls have been made before the nail is hit on the head.

    besides predicting tops and bottoms, a successful market timer should be able to demonstrate other tricks (e.g. predict the date of QQQQ ~46 gap fill).
  3. You're getting ahead of yourself here. The top won't be in or confirmed until mid-April. Always right and always early doesn't make much money