Market Direction INDU SPX OEX NDX RUT

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gg12, Apr 2, 2006.

  1. gg12

    gg12

    Market Vote 05/05

    Nr Name Trend; Change
    -------------------------------
    01 INDU UP; 11400
    02 DIA UP; 114
    03 SPX UP; 1310
    04 SPY UP; 131
    05 OEX UP; 595
    06 NDX DN; 1720
    07 QQQQ DN; 41.5
    08 Nasdaq UP; 2320
    09 RUT UP; 770
    10 IWM UP; 76

    # of UPs vs. DNs 8:2 => market is bullish. 80% UP bias!

    11 VIX DN; 12.5
    12 VXO UP; 11.0
    13 VXN DN; 15.0
    14 QQV DN; 14.0

    # of UPs vs. DNs 1:3 => at lot of greed, no fear.

    DIA bought at 112; stop loss 114
    SPY bought at 130; stop loss 131
    QQQQ; total loss; -0.5
    QQQQ bought at 42.0, because it traded below 41.5 this week.
    Stop Loss is 41.5
    IWM; toal gain; +1.0

    I had been waiting now for 77 to be crossed up intraday by the IWM. IWM bought at 77; Stop Loss 76

    Everything locks fine, so far.
     
    #41     May 7, 2006
  2. Did you put this wrongly.
     
    #42     May 7, 2006
  3. gg12

    gg12

    Li Ka Shing,

    thank you very much for your comment.

    You are right! Based on the rules QQQQ is in an uptrend, because it left the 41.5 level and made the first step 'north'
    - and successfully passed 42.0 intraday (and confirmed level by a closing).

    # of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is even more bullish. 90% UP bias!

    gg12
     
    #43     May 9, 2006
  4. gg12

    gg12

    # of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is still bullish. 90% UP bias!

    New stopp loss for DIA is 115.
    DIA bought at 112; stop loss 114 -> 115

    If DIA crosses 116 the open long position is closed intraday.
    If the closing on the same day is above 116 the position will be initiated again, because the close was invalid.

    Does that sound reasonable for you?
     
    #44     May 11, 2006
  5. gg12

    gg12

    Locked in 3 points for the DIA so far. Long positions have been established at 112. Actual stopp loss is at 115.
     
    #45     May 11, 2006
  6. gg12

    gg12

    Market Vote 05/05

    Nr Name Trend; Change
    -------------------------------
    01 INDU DN; 11500
    02 DIA DN; 115
    03 SPX DN; 1310
    04 SPY DN; 131
    05 OEX DN; 595
    06 NDX DN; 1660
    07 QQQQ DN; 41.0
    08 Nasdaq DN; 2280
    09 RUT DN; 760
    10 IWM DN; 75

    # of UPs vs. DNs 0:10 => market is very bearish. 100% Down (DN) bias!

    11 VIX UP; 13.5
    12 VXO UP; 13.0
    13 VXN UP; 16.5
    14 QQV UP; 16.0

    # of UPs vs. DNs 4:0 => at lot of fear, no greed.

    DIA bought at 112; stopped out at 115 with full 3 points gain.
    One small loss occured, because a low of a day crossed 115 followed by a closing above 115. Position was stopped out and re-established at closing of that day.
    Re-Entry in DIA will be at 115 crossed to the upside confirmed by a daily closing.

    SPY bought at 130; stopped out at 131; gain one full point!
    Re-Entry for SYP is 131

    QQQQ bought at 42.0, Stop Loss was hit at 41.5; Loss!; -0.5 points; QQQQ loss summing up to -1.0 (-0.5-0.5)
    IWM; toal gain; +1.0

    IWM bought at 77; stopped out at 76 for one point loss; -1.0; total balance for IWM is 0 (+1.0-1.0) so far.

    DIA ok. 3 points gain since start
    SPY ok. 1 points gain since start
    QQQQ neutral; no gain - no loss
    IWM neutral; no gain - no loss

    In summary I am happy because 4 points gain in these 4 instruments habe been made.
     
    #46     May 15, 2006
  7. gg12

    gg12

    Sorry! Last market vote is from 05/12 not from 05/05 (date was not updated in my last post).

    Please send me your questions and suggestions for corrections. I aim this thread to have good quality and information for you.
     
    #47     May 15, 2006
  8. gg12

    gg12

    Market Vote 05/17

    Nr Name Trend; Change
    -------------------------------
    01 INDU DN; 11400
    02 DIA DN; 113
    03 SPX DN; 1290
    04 SPY DN; 128
    05 OEX DN; 590
    06 NDX DN; 1620
    07 QQQQ DN; 40.0
    08 Nasdaq DN; 2220
    09 RUT DN; 740
    10 IWM DN; 73

    # of UPs vs. DNs 0:10 => market is very bearish. 100% Down (DN) bias!

    11 VIX DN; 14.0
    12 VXO DN; 13.0
    13 VXN UP; 18.5
    14 QQV UP; 17.5

    # of UPs vs. DNs 2:2 => at too much fear, no greed.
    It's interesting to see that the volas for the SPX are going down but the SPX and INDU dropped down yesterday!

    Re-Entry in DIA will be at 113 (NEW!) crossed to the upside confirmed by a daily closing.

    New Re-Entry for SYP is 128.
    New Re-Entry for QQQQ is 40.
    New Re-Entry for IWM is 73.

    Set intraday stopp buys. If the same day closing doesn't confirm the level, get out at close! Try a re-entry the next day if the levels are surpassed!

    Balance
    DIA ok. 3 points gain since start
    SPY ok. 1 points gain since start
    QQQQ neutral; no gain - no loss
    IWM neutral; no gain - no loss
     
    #48     May 18, 2006
  9. gg12

    gg12

    Market Vote 05/17

    Nr Name Trend; Change
    -------------------------------
    01 INDU DN; 11300
    02 DIA DN; 113
    03 SPX DN; 1280
    04 SPY DN; 128
    05 OEX DN; 585
    06 NDX DN; 1620
    07 QQQQ DN; 40.0
    08 Nasdaq DN; 2220
    09 RUT DN; 730
    10 IWM DN; 73

    # of UPs vs. DNs 0:10 => market is very bearish. 100% Down (DN) bias!

    11 VIX UP; 16.0
    12 VXO UP; 15.0
    13 VXN UP; 19.5
    14 QQV UP; 18.5

    # of UPs vs. DNs 4:0 => fear!!; no greed.
    All volas are going up now!

    Re-Entry in DIA will be at 113 crossed to the upside confirmed by a daily closing.
    New Re-Entry for SYP is 128.
    New Re-Entry for QQQQ is 40.
    New Re-Entry for IWM is 73.

    Balance
    DIA ok. 3 points gain since start
    SPY ok. 1 points gain since start
    QQQQ neutral; no gain - no loss
    IWM neutral; no gain - no loss
     
    #49     May 19, 2006
  10. gg12

    gg12

    Market Vote 05/22

    Balance
    ----------
    4 points = 4 x confirmations of right relative judgement.
    DIA ok. 3 points gain since start
    SPY ok. 1 points gain since start
    QQQQ neutral; no gain - no loss
    IWM neutral; no gain - no loss

    Nr Name Trend; Change
    -------------------------------
    01 INDU DN; 11300
    02 DIA DN; 112
    03 SPX DN; 1280
    04 SPY DN; 128
    05 OEX DN; 585
    06 NDX DN; 1620
    07 QQQQ DN; 39.5
    08 Nasdaq DN; 2200
    09 RUT DN; 730
    10 IWM DN; 73

    # of UPs vs. DNs 0:10 => market is very bearish. 100% Down (DN) bias!

    11 VIX UP; 17.0
    12 VXO UP; 15.5
    13 VXN UP; 22.0
    14 QQV UP; 20

    # of UPs vs. DNs 4:0 => fear!!; no greed.
    All volas are going up now!

    Signals
    ---------
    New Re-Entry in DIA will be at 112 crossed to the upside confirmed by a daily closing.
    Re-Entry for SYP is still 128
    New Re-Entry for QQQQ is 39.5
    Re-Entry for IWM is 73

    Miscellaneous
    -----------------
    IWM graphics attached to show where the triggerline lies.
     
    #50     May 23, 2006