Market Vote 04/21 01 INDU UP; 11200 02 DIA UP; 112 03 SPX UP; 1300 04 SPY UP; 130 05 OEX UP; 585 06 NDX UP; 1700 07 QQQQ DN; 42.5 08 Nasdaq UP; 2340 09 RUT UP; 760 10 IWM UP; 76 # of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is bullishh. 90% UP bias! 11 VIX DN; 12.0 12 VXO DN; 11.5 13 VXN DN; 16.0 14 QQV DN; 15.0 # of UPs vs. DNs 0:4 => at lot of greed, no fear.
================= gg12; Like your research work; there are lots of ways to make money in market. QQQQ & SMH have done well for the short polar bears for the past 12 months; its up to you GG12, at very least i would avoid longs on both of those. Simply up trends have ,are favoring DIA,SPY,YM,ES. True IWM is superstrong, its late in cycle for now anyway,76 stop looks fine. William O Neill & Rich Dennis may not have agreed on much; but noticed both like long the strong, short the weak laggards occasionaly. Good trading to you; your shorts on XLE could be profitable & help fuel rally. When i did short oil stocks this year always flat @ end of day.
murray t turtle, thank you for watching my research work. I will try to improve every day. I agree with you. SMH and QQQQ are compared to other indexes relatively weak. For SMH the Friday's close gave already a short signal below the 37.5 level. Please see attached graphics. I like the IWM as well, since it locked in one point profit quickly and I expect a nice win on it. Let's watch it the next days. XLE could go down, but I will not trade against a market vote... (which is currently up!) gg12
gg12, I like to look at volatility on a weekly chart, 30, 60, 100 sma (or monthly 15, 30 sma). All seem to be capped at around the weekly 100 sma (20sma monthly). However, a break in long term resistance may signify a trend change with MACD divergence. qqv, vxn seem to be up, and, vxo, vix seem to be neutral. Another thing may be the weekly positive or negative close on volas. Last week all 4 on weekly charts closed down. So you could have a triad read on volas. 1. your current methodology. 2. weekly subjective look to see rough trend (regression/progression) on 30, 60, 100 sma, with MACD read. (Or 15, 30sma monthly) 3. weekly close (positive or negative). i.e. last week all were negative, week before also all negative, week before last 2+ and 2-. On a monthly chart, all except vxo seem to be starting an uptrend.
1000, you are helping me and all watchers of this thread. Thank you for that. I like you approach on various volatility indexes. SMAs, MACDs ... sorry, I am missing any statistical proof that they work well. After reading your reply about my too short time thinking, I 've made up my mind. You are perfectly right. The major low volatile indexes can be predicted well on a weekly (closing) base. Seems that we are are all to impatient. I think daily trading signals can be derived from the weekly or even monthly outlook. To avoid choppy signals may be it's best to turn to a weekly rhythm. What do you think? gg12 PS: I agree with you on the VXO. The only possible way is up. We just don't know when...
The longer I trade the more interested I become in long-term fundamental data to support my macro trading plan. Not that it is the trigger but helps me with my form. It's an ongoing learing experience as even the economists don't get it right frequently. As you learn more you realize how little you know and I suppose therein lies the fascination. Well good luck sorry to interject just enjoyed reading your thread.
Market Vote 04/27 Nr Name Trend; Change ------------------------------- 01 INDU UP; 11200 02 DIA UP; 112 03 SPX UP; 1300 04 SPY UP; 130 05 OEX UP; 590 06 NDX UP; 1700 07 QQQQ DN; 42.5 08 Nasdaq DN; 2360 09 RUT UP; 760 10 IWM DN; 77 # of UPs vs. DNs 7:3 => market is bullishh. 70% UP bias! 11 VIX DN; 12.0 12 VXO DN; 11.0 13 VXN DN; 16.0 14 QQV DN; 14.5 # of UPs vs. DNs 0:4 => at lot of greed, no fear. DIA bought at 112; Stop Loss 112 SPY bought at 130; Stop Loss 130 QQQQ one loss with -0.5 QQQQ waiting for 42.5 crossed up; intraday IWM bought at 75; sold at 76; with +1.0 (see attached graphics) The IWM trade is a little bit tricky, because there have been 3 attempts to break the level 76 and the close was above 76! That ended in three small losses which I have deduct from the full point gain. I am waiting now for 77 to be crossed up intraday. If a closing doesn't confirm I will get out at the closing.
duard, I agree with you. Long-term fundamental data can support your macro trading plan. May be the 'Market Vote' can help to judge the mid term direction. I had one successful trade as you see above. And there where three trys of the IWM to break the 76 before finally did it. I learn at lot in this thread so far and I am happy that you enjoy reading. gg12