Li Ka Shing I find it extremly interesting that the lowest correlation of SPX and SPY last year has been only 71%!!! SPX and OEX are highly correlated, but the magic full numbers and intervals work in a way that you can have a long signal on SPX and simultaneously a short signal on OEX. In summing -1 and +1 up I count that as a neutral direction signal. Target is to vote all the individual signals and create a filter. The filter can tell you not to trade against the 'vote'. I didn't do any backtesting on that, but let's see. Regards, gg12 PS: SPX and SPY are short since they lost 10 and 1 point. OEX was in uptrend. Today the 585 line has been crossed to the downside on intrady base. If that will be the case on the closing we will have the OEX also pointing south, creating a dangerous 'south' trend.
1000, if you want track. Take a vote, for example 0.6 up, and see if that happened during the next days. I will do updates every weekend. So, the market direction accuracy can be measured at the results of every weeks closings. Acceptable for you?
I like it, gg12, you got guts, awesome. The only thing is that I trade actively, and so I don't want to skew, or be biased to my vote. So I would rather trade, because if I vote down, then I will have my shorts hat on, and visa versa. Thing is I have a good idea as to what the exact index price is going to be over the next few days.
1000, sometimes a bias is the right thing. If the vote of the major indexes is down, why should we go long immediately? The best thing from my opinion is to wait until 'magig' lines are crossed to the upside. That will reduce the overall profit, but will avoid multible expensive whipsaws. Is that correct from your opinion?
Doesn't work that way. Also have to consider no. of contracts to trade, and the instrument. Anyway, too many variants, which take on different degrees of importance at different times.
Market Vote 04/13 01 INDU DN; 11200 02 DIA DN; 112 03 SPX DN; 1300 04 SPY DN; 130 05 OEX DN; 590 06 NDX UP; 1700 07 QQQQ DN; 42.5 08 Nasdaq DN; 2340 09 RUT DN; 760 10 IWM DN; 75 # of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is bearish. 90% down bias! 11 VIX UP; 12.0 12 VXO DN; 12.5 13 VXN DN; 17.0 14 QQV UP; 15.0 # of UPs vs. DNs 2:2 => no greed, no fear. Watch the breaklevels based on daily closing prices (... ; xxx.x). To better verify the results, I will track DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM which are tradeable instruments. Buy DIA Stop 113; Stop Loss 112 Buy SPY Stop 130; Stop Loss 129 Buy Qs Stop 42.5; Stop Loss 42.0 Buy IWM Stop 75; Stop Loss 74 If the stopp level is not confirmed at the close, I will close the trade and take the loss at the same day's closing.
The Chinese would want to make a statement with PRC premier Hu Jintao's visit. Too much geopolitical noise right now to make sense. Just got to ride out the turbulence for now.
======================= GG12 Looks like some good probability trades , especially since long term trends like DIA,YM,ES,SPY are up, 200 & 50 day moving averages are up; however rallys have been weak. XLE looks even stronger; supply & demand may help uptrend more. Looks like however market may hit your QQQQ sell stop, not a prediction. And while weekly lows have held on ES,SPY,YM,DIA; and may even have an uptrend day next week,????? .Weak rally ES,SPY weekly trends are down,& 20 days =down YM,DIA weekly trends are down, & 20 days = down