Market Direction INDU SPX OEX NDX RUT

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gg12, Apr 2, 2006.

  1. Sundog

    Sundog

    Nice chart analysis. Appreciated.

    Sundog
     
    #141     Apr 24, 2007
  2. gg12

    gg12

    ES trended sideways yesterday.

    Next signal when

    a) 1492 is crossed to the upside or
    b) 1485 crossed to the downside

    Trend is UP looking at longer timeframes.
     
    #142     Apr 25, 2007
  3. gg12

    gg12

    Sundog

    Thank you!

    Ive made an analysis for the YM as well.

    YM is long from 13000
    with TS 12980
    Market direction is UP

    Stops can be trailed with 50 points on the 10 point grid, but obviously some backtesting is needed to confirm.

    Apprechiate your thougths?
     
    #143     Apr 25, 2007
  4. pma

    pma

    gg12-agree 100% with your es/dow charts. Price action trading at its finest. Probably lots of buy/sell stops in your highlighted ranges.
     
    #144     Apr 25, 2007
  5. Sundog

    Sundog

    gg12 good call, I would expect a correction at your next resistance 13040, too. At this point there is also a chance that the ym enters a trading range around 12950 and 13040. As it is, just speculation.
    If I would have entered at 13000, a trailing stop is a good idea as you said.
    Concerning backtesting, I use Metastock, so I am not of such a help. I am still more a discretionary trader, but would as well backtest some ideas, especially some relative strength ideas.
    Some people say, RS is not working anymore, but I cannot agree.

    Markets are in a tug-of-war, as you all know. Arbs and order flow from one market to another is ruling. Thats most impotantly the reason why markets are moving with of course many other considerations. You can see the order flow with RS on the chart.
    But do not enter when stock, etc. is strong, wait for a pullback, otherwise you pay the premium for others, who are entering cheaper. Go with the order flow!
    So the pattern is: strong, weak, strong, weak, strong, and so on => higher highs and higher lows !!! most importantly!!!, it all happens in a upmoving fashion. This is an ideal strong uptrend.

    Sundog
     
    #145     Apr 25, 2007
  6. gg12

    gg12

    pma
    Sundog

    Trend direction is UP as both of you said. The consequence is like Sundog outlined. Buy pullbacks!

    - very stong up -> dont jump on the train (even sell some exposure)
    - pause, somewhat weak -> buy that dips ('train stations entry')

    The position size will grow with that method. A trailing stop protects the position. Its like buying a call with a trailing stop.

    But I found out an other interesting setup.
    There was a countertrend strategy possible for the ES on a one point grid for the recent few days (even in that uptrending market).

    The strategy here was to short against every 4 point move with a profit target of 4 points (trailing on grid).

    Did you look at that opportunity already? (see attached chart of the ES with all the trades on it)
     
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    #146     Apr 29, 2007
  7. gg12

    gg12

    Very clear uptrend for the YM.

    Even for that uptrend market a countertrend strategy is possible:

    1) Short every 30 point move
    2) with a trailing PT of 30 points
    3) Stop loss at 80 points.
     
    #147     Apr 29, 2007
  8. gg12

    gg12

    DAX trend is UP from 7430
    TS and reverse point is at 7400
     
    #148     Apr 30, 2007
  9. gg12

    gg12

    DAX trend is UP
    There was a consolitation and meanwhile the FDAX broke out of the top.

    Long signal 7470
    SL 7420
    Trail on 10 point grid
    7420 is currently also the reverse point for bi-directional trades (SL 50 points). The reverse point will trail up with the stop.
     
    #149     May 2, 2007
  10. gg12

    gg12

    ES trend is sideways within the green borders (see attached graphics)
     
    #150     May 2, 2007