Market Direction INDU SPX OEX NDX RUT

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by gg12, Apr 2, 2006.

  1. gg12


    Short term market direction might be calculated by a 'voting' from different indexes and ETFs. Only closing prices are taken in consideration. DN means short term Down. UP means short term up. First you will see the name of the index followed by the actual trend and than a number by crossing on closing the trend will be no longer valid.

    01 INDU DN; 11300
    02 DIA DN; 113
    03 SPX UP; 1290
    04 SPY DN; 131
    05 OEX DN; 595
    06 NDX UP; 1680
    07 QQQQ UP; 41.5
    08 Nasdaq UP; 2320
    09 RUT UP; 750
    10 IWM UP; 74

    # of UPs 6:4 => market is short term heading UP with 60% probability. This should be just one indication and must matched with a lot more analysis.

    What do you think?
  2. gg12


    No change. Be aware of volatility rising for VXN and QQV.
  3. ========

    Agree close =main measure;
    daytraders find highs/lows helpful also.

    Long story short, yes weeklys are sideways/down slightly;
    but add more , most all other time frames are up,
    1 year up,
    year to date up ,
    50days up,
    20 days up,
    intraday lows/highs up/DIA/SPY
    fed day was a bit downtrendy; but its still a bull market you know.

    And sadly some dont have any idea what that means,you know.:cool:
  4. the dia (and trans and ER2) have led, and the Q's and tech's lagged

    it's called regression to the mean now

    the Q's and some of the bigger tech's (AAPL fer instance) have to catch up

    look at the NQ overlaid the YM

    NQ was consolidating the whole time YM was ramping
  5. gg12


    Hi murray t turtle,

    thank you for your comment.

    Cl is so important, because it's after daytraders left the trading field and because people remember the close. Everything is compared against last day's close.

    I am not sure with highs and lows. Do all traders recall the high or low numbers even one day later? Should I play 'breakout' or 'fading' once passing the extremes of the last day? Is there a statistics?

    Seems sad. Volas are down. All timeframes show slight uptrends. What's next? Buy and hold as successful strategy?


  6. gg12


    Hi whister,

    I argee Qs are recently heavily lagging. Volas are extremely low.
    YM (INDU) has no dynamic either.
    In Futures I also follow the EMD. Best seems to be the ER2 (RUT).
    Please see attached graphics.


  7. buy and hold IS a successful strategy

    for investing. it aint a trading strategy obviously.

    I DCA many quality stocks, in one of my longterm investment accounts. otoh, i trade index options (long and short) and various stocks and daytrade YM. these are not mutually exclusive, or contradictory.

    trans were off the hook today! Nasdaq Comp 5 yr high. NQ's catchin' up. just what we want to see. the laggards (composite and NQ at least catching up to the leaders to some extent. ). nice rotation, plenty of bearishness, etc.
  8. ==========
    I use the close as main measure last , but record the open also ;
    simply rather look at too many trend numbers than too few,
    but @ the end of the day,
    the close is usually the last number recorded [not left to memory,]

    Interesting article,Investors Business Daily website.

    They're,against Iran fanatics /lying mainstream media and not only gave them a failing grade, gave SMH a ''D'', a downtrend, distribution grade.
    May not be a series random events, most of William J. O' Neil short selling book patterns are tek.

  9. gg12


    01 INDU DN; 11300
    02 DIA DN; 113
    03 SPX DN; 1310
    04 SPY DN; 131
    05 OEX UP; 585
    06 NDX UP; 1700
    07 QQQQ UP; 42.0
    08 Nasdaq DN; 2360
    09 RUT UP; 750
    10 IWM UP; 75

    # of UPs vs. DNs 5:5 => market is neutral.

    11 VIX UP; 11.5
    12 VXO UP; 11.5
    13 VXN DN; 16.5
    14 QQV DN; 15.0

    # of UPs vs. DNs 2:2 => market is neutral.

    Watch the breaklevels based on daily closing prices (... ; xxx.x)

    Volas for Options on SPX/OEX are increasing.
    Volas for Options on NDX/Qs are decreasing.
  10. Hi....qq12...

    Just wondering if you have taken into consideration their correlation at all?

    For example SPX SPY OEX tend to have very high correlation.

    I see your list, SPX and SPY are in the downward direction, but OEX upward.

    Also I see the first page of this thread, SPX going one way, SPY going the other way (SPX up 1290, SPY down 131).

    Perhaps you can explain more how this is possible, considering the correlation of SPX and SPY? Why would they have different directional bias?

    Does that have anything to do with the time frame? How short is your definition of short term?

    Or did you into those indexes independently, and then come up with a resultant overall conclusion?

    But I think, some of the components should have same bias, SPX SPY definitely, and SPX SPY OEX also.

    If you enforce a rigid rule that they should be pointing to the same directional bias, due to their correlation, then perhaps the resultant overall sum could be a bit different.
    #10     Apr 9, 2006