This notion of comparing volume against an average on the basis of time-of-day is interesting and I can see the value in it. I often glance at a 60min chart during the day and examine relative volume level for the current bar versus the same bar over the last several days. However, the problem with raw volume is that is only tells how much participation there is in the market during that period - it tells you nothing about the nature of the trades that took place. MD's Volume Breakdown solves that problem by distinguishing between buying and selling volume. I'm much more interested in the (im)balance between buyers and sellers in a particular bar as opposed to the absolute volume number. This net volume (or delta) if you like provides a much better read on how much buying/selling pressure there was, and what impact it had on price direction and momentum. In essence this is a means for assessing trade facilitation - a core MP concept - initiating versus resposive behaviour etc. For example, if a net+1500 lots moved the ES +1.50 points on a particular bar and a net +1000 lots on the next bar move it +3.50 points then clearly the market facilitation on the long side is improving - arguing for a continuation of the up move. Now the sharp witted among you have just clicked that "hey we can measure market facilitation" with MD - divide the net price change by the delta (net volume). Well I've been researching this idea and have concluded that the best approach is to measure trade facilitation from the long and short sides independently - which adds a layer of complexity but I think I've got it figured out. I'll e-mail Chad my idea sometime soon. later, bolter
Very true, but the purpose in comparing total volume to me is to see whether the day has kicked off with high volume or just so so volume. This tells me whether the day ( make that morning) is likely to punch through the s& r lines or bounce off them, although as you will appreciate it is never as black or white as this.
Here's a chart to demonstrate my last post - delta (net volume) versus raw volume. This is today action on the Bund.
fearless, Whister mentioned the same idea of measuring pre-market volume to get a heads-up on what's in store. It's an excellent idea, and top of my pre-market checklist. In fact there was a thread on this very subject a while back where someone presented some really interesting ideas on how he predicted whether it was a trend or range day. I can't find it now. If anybody has this link perhaps they can oblige. thanks, bolter
Gracias B, I will read it latter today. On your MF comments, I have fiddled around with the notion and then given it away but that could be because it doesnt fit my methods. I am after the 4/5 pt shifts in the ES morning session and so either the delta builds up to shove the price this far or it doesnt and I am bloody ruthless if it is not going to happen IMO.
I am trading and posting at the same time. A sure fire recipe to fu both. MF I do use a crude version I suppose in that if "n" amount of delta cannot push the price, then it will probably turn. You can apply this over 1 & 2 bars. My levels are intuitive but you could try using 2SD of av delta. Also I use tic charts as IMHO the ES is driven by volume impacting upon price action not time. The only time that time enters the arena is at the 09.30 open. I know that one should be wary of the 10.00am news, but quite frankly I am looking at it in the charts. Oh what a beautiful morning. I have done my daily pts quota, but I will stay on and milk it. Long live the US elections ... may they never end.
I skimmed through this thread. Massive analysis leading through correlation and into prediction is not my bag.
I am not aware how to derive pre market order/volumes. Could someone point out what markets and from what source they can be obtained. Thanks