Jeez, I forgot to add the most important quote from Wiki. (Note to self - brain rot getting worse.) He continued to make money in the bull markets of the Roaring 20's. In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the 1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his positions and they kept declining in price. When just about everyone in the markets lost money in the crash of 1929, Livermore was worth $100 million after his short-selling profits. [edit]
Be careful. No major influx of spec funds? The market is full os spec funds i.e. hedge funds. Have you missed the huge capital flows into and out of emerging markets recently? India, Iceland, Turkey, etc... Globally commodities realized a correction after huge bull run (said not to be over). Vol is returning to the market, more vol = better for speculators. You don't need a revolution or historical event to move a market. The current global imbalances will definitely precipitate major market changes over the next 1 - 2 years. Whether that be a dollar crash or beginning of the "agricultural commodity bull run", or an oil crisis/resolution. There is so much opportunity to make so much money in the coming few years it isn't even funny. You should check your sources or you may miss out... oh, and as far as revolutions - globalization may very well prove to be our current revolution. It's initial effects are only just beginning to pass through markets and the MAJOR effects have not begun to price in yet... Be careful.
As far as what you are talking about, it applies to the savvy speculator who can make money in any market. What i was talking about was the fact that these "revolutions" eventually create a boom in the Equity market. Which is the only market where the major influx of speculation capital is allocated. During the roaring 20's and tech boom, grandma was investing, the car wash guy was investing. These people are not going to put their money into commodities, emerging markets, or futures to speculate. These vehicles are reserved for the wanna be's and the professionals. Just like the railroad stocks fell out of favor, autos, and now tech. They will be replaced in the new revolution with the new great stocks which will again follow the same path. "the game never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but wall street never changes, because human nature never changes." -Livermore-
No. I dream of crashes every night. Crashes increase volatility, and volatility increases opportunities.
The 20's had a tech component too - radio, which was seen as a technology revolution at the time. The common theme that permitted both booms was a massive expansion of easy credit. The current real estate boom (now fading) was the result of continuing easy credit availability. The other common theme was "it CAN'T go down because (insert the reasons given by your favorite "experts" here)!" In other words, an almost universal belief that the existing trend could not possibly change. Of course, now we're being told by the "experts" that real estate can't go down. Whew - that's a relief.
I've been a stockbroker for over thirty years and I've been a student of the market longer than I've been a stocbroker. If there's anything I've learned ALL THESE YEARS IS THIS: "NEVER SAY NEVER!
Oh yeah but this time it is different :eek: (yeah right! don't you believe it. If there is one thing I have learned from history is that people do not learn from history) vital analitics