Market Crash

Discussion in 'Trading' started by retaildaytrader, Aug 25, 2010.

  1. I fully realize that “crash” is a very strong word full of all kinds of very definite connotations, but I really can’t think of any other way to articulate what is happening .

    Whenever the wizards at the Fed run the proverbial printing presses to create more fiat dollars out of thin air, those inflationary dollars have to seek out a new home and a great deal of them begin bidding competitively on the already overvalued US equity markets. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 bubble really ignited after the Fed began aggressively goosing US money supplies in the mid-1990s!

    Any way you slice it though, the fundamental and technical case for the S&P 500 is certainly for another serious downleg approaching, probably not carrying us to the ultimate bottom, but definitely obliterating another significant percentage of already bleeding investors’ scarce capital. Once the mighty index trades below its neckline of around 950 or so for a few weeks, the selling pressure will probably intensify immensely as fear increases and investors and traders decide discretion is the better part of valor for now.

    While us private investors can’t save the world, we can zealously try to transcend the real-world Matrix of popular opinion on the markets. Rather than living in the confusing world of Wall Street lies and perpetual promises of “the bottom is in” or the profit recovery will roar forth “next quarter,” investors can seek to understand the markets as they really are.

    Like the movie Matrix, only a relatively small number of contrarian investors truly seek to understand the markets while the rest of the investors are trapped inside, by their own choice, and have no hope of escape, blinded by their own delusions.
     
  2. List of headlines in todays inbox.

    Housing & Real Estate

    Existing Home Sales Plunge in July: What a Shock by The Fundamental Analyst
    Things Are Only Going to Get Worse for Housing by Michael T. Snyder
    The Recovery Has Stalled by Bernard Thomas
    Housing and Jobs: The Underlying Problems Are Re-Emerging by Econophile
    Growing Rental Trends Undermine U.S. Home Sales by Keith Jurow
    The Plunge in Housing Must Continue by Vahan Janjigian
    Housing Market Meets Proverbial Cliff by Tom Lindmark
    America Stops Buying Homes by Felix Salmon
    Existing Home Sales Take a Dive by James Picerno
    Existing Home Sales Collapse in July by Daryl Montgomery
    Existing Home Sales Plunge 27%, Worse Than Every Economist Forecast; Treasury Yields Hit New Lows by Michael Shedlock
    Home Sales Plunge, Prices to Follow by Zacks.com
    Did the Housing Tax Credit Accomplish Anything? by Sold At The Top
    Housing: 'It Doesn't Get Worse Than This' by The Pragmatic Capitalist
    I Love the Smell of Housing Collapse in the Morning by Sold At The Top
    Existing Home Sales Plunge, Despite Government's Help by TraderMark
    An Awfully Bad Number by Bespoke Investment Group
    Existing Home Sales Plunge in July by Tim Iacono
    The Home Improvement Trade Is Over by Leigh Drogen
     
  3. TGregg

    TGregg

  4. RDT,

    Why not simply abandon the entire concept of prognostication and just watch the price and its underlying volume?

    Price cannot lie and I have not yet seen a crash that happen in just one day. Insiders will begin to weaken the metrics of the market a day or two before the actual crash.
     
  5. +1
     

  6. I do think that markets might correct, but your argument that more dollars printed lead to lower stock prices does not hold water. Printing more dollars punish people who hold dollars in checking accounts not stocks
     
  7. The stock market shoved all that bad news down the bears' throats and ran with the bulls.

    DOW finished +0.20%
    S&P 500 finished +0.33%
    Nasdaq finished +0.84%

    [​IMG]
     

  8. Retaildaytrader:

    Why did you take a few paragraphs from a webpage posted on July 12, 2002 by "Adam Hamilton", titled "S&P 500 Slow-Motion Crash", and posted here on ET as if this was your own assertion... and give no credit to the original author?

    Are you telling us you are Adam Hamilton?

    And what is the point of reciting something seen/forecasted in 2002 as if this is today's situation?

    http://www.zealllc.com/2002/spcrash.htm
     
  9. :p :p :p :p :p :p :p :p :p :p
     
  10. I was short SPY today in the morning

    although TLT price action was just not right so closed SPY went short TLT exactly 9:59:59 AM
     
    #10     Aug 25, 2010