the economy can go down still while stocks go up....if you were around in the early 90s you know what im talking about... roubini/economists can predict the economy but not the market...if that were the case there would be a lot of wealthy and prematurely retired economists.
Been sitting in the 4500-5000 camp myself for quite a while. Indeed, potentially too high! An exogenous event alone can bring it to fruition. But what if an exogenous event is coupled with US realization the deliverer is not capable of delivering. Or worse, the deliverer is the exogenous event. Pain is not yet being felt. Being mad is not being in pain. Earning 16 million dollars last year, and earning 1 dollar this year is not pain. Dropping your 24.95 monthly Vonage account for a 19.95 annual MajicJack account is not pain. A McDonalds coffee instead of Starbucks is not pain. A Sizzler steak instead of an Outback steak is not pain (although an argument can be made.) We have been conditioned over decades. We are fish that have never seen a fish hook. The problem is, there are many types of fish hooks... what do we even look for? Hey, what is that net-thing over there? Osorico
If much of the impetus behind this rally is A performance chasing and B setting the stage for some major tax selling at the end of the year then early Jan could be a dangerous time. Don't think we roll over until at least after options expiration next week but I don't have any position in equities either (DXO and KOL don't count). After exp will be looking to leg in to some ES and NQ shorts (likely with puts) to cover my commodity longs through Feb.
Osorico posted ""The problem is, there are many types of fish hooks... what do we even look for? Hey, what is that net-thing over there?"" IOW, why am I in this basket, and why is it so hot in here?
Oso, just come right out and tell it like it is: True pain is saying, "Wow, BIDU's about to hit $100!" and not trading it to the long side
No it's not...where have you been? Ecuador has defaulted on their debt each and every single time debt has been issued to them. Those that give them the debt know the risk - that's why there's such a high return associated with it. You make it sound like it's a freak incident of terrible calamity. It's happened each time before.
not this time around. I think it will make it easier for others to follow suit. take a look around and you know which countries I'm talking about. all in all this downturn could even lead to a big war. you cannot create wealth out of thin air. it will take years to make EVERYONE happy again. the quickest solution is a population reduction to meet the wealth that remains. that will fix it. human's don't like waiting. they only live once. they rather die than to suffer.