I believe there is a high possibility that the stock market will crash in the next 2 months. this will be worse than 1929. there is so much credit that needs to be distroyed before we level off. it could take around 10 years to get back to start of 07. unemployment will hit record levels. DOW to hit 4000 compare it to everything in the past. this is the worse it gets. the market has ignored all the bad news in the past 2 weeks - exactly what happens when it's getting ready for a big plunge. effectively everything has been nationalised in the US. In the UK everyone is working for the government. you cannot create wealth by printing money. what's happened in Ecuador is a DISASTER. just terrible. terrible.
Not sure about 2 months but I do expect couple of huge down days next week. Most likely starting from monday. full disclosure ERX FAZ
Ha! If you listen to all the talking heads and ANAL-ysts, bear markets ignoring bad news is the sign of full recovery in the market. Yeah, right.
With all this frozen credit I'm surprised the private sector has not discovered an answer, some other venue for credit, an internet banking system or something of the like, maybe issue currency of their own and we could all give the mid finger salute to the Fed..
I read the same story. Frankly, no one has a clue where it will be. You are either a trader, or adding to the growing cacophany of people who try to prove they don't know what is going to happen, but are willing to make a blind guess..
I agree that there will be another leg down, but seeing as it is expiration this week I am not expecting to happen this week.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hWBB_uL1NmMTxqZzwChOdemwOdygD951ERT02 Not enough oil money coming in, so why pay the debt? Don't worry there is only 4.7B outstanding CDS in gross exposure to all of their debt (so no magnification of losses). http://www.dtcc.com/products/derivserv/data_table_i.php?id=table6
I agree with this analysis. but by looking at feeling the 40 points gap today, I must admit that the market still has a bull taste. So if this bull wave take ES to 1050 area, even another leg down will max take it back to 730 low and not more.
In my mind, There is a high probability that the market gets completely and utterly blown out next week and well, then for all practical purposes everything we have known is OVER. It will be another disastrous manifestation of dominoes falling down. This Madoff thing is astonishing... Basically we thought that all of these financial engineers with their opaque, proprietary, complex (blah, blah, blah) bullsh*t methods were smarter than us. Well they were smarter con artists, that part is true. Tell me, WHAT IS REAL? Because I don't have a clue anymore. If what I think is going to happen, happens, then I will be in some remote part of South America or Canada with a lot of weapons and making a stab at self sufficiency (a skill which I am afraid that evolution has robbed me of over the last few generations of "civilized" living)