Historical odds are that a nice up leg begins by 10am Tuesday. But odds aren't certainties. Obladi oblada.
I expect a gap down. The market is still too high, still up for the year! Are we in a better position now, at 1275, than on Jan 1, at 1260? I don't think so.
You guys crack me up. None of you even seem to be able to grasp what is and has been moving the market. How you going to win like that? Best to just day trade small caps. That way you can give your money to me instead of someone you don't know.
A bounce is probably to be expected, but the bounce should be sold. Follow the bond market. Look at the TLT, it has broken out above consolidation. You can expect it to retest support, and hence expect the market to pop a little. Mutual fund money will come in the markets giving it a lift, but that lift will not last. We ARE in a sideways market with a bear bias, or potentially in a major bear market. Bond market price activity seems like a prime indicator that something major is at hand. During the financial collapse, bonds only lasted here for a short period, during the panic. Now, at a time with no panic, bond prices are holding these levels, indicating something is looming, something is worse than people expect. But generally, a sell off on Monday would be too easy, but you never know. You expect the markets to try and fake out the shorts. Either way, I am out of stocks at S&P 1400 and I'm waiting for 1000 - 1100 to put some back in.
No, the bonds are rallying because everyone and their mom are putting their money in bonds. Stocks are hated. All the inflows go to bonds these days. And Banana Ben keeps buying bonds with printed dollars too. How can they can they go down in that kind of environment?
Lucrum> 1) I started this thread because I was a bit nostalgic for all these types of theads a couple of years ago. 2) I wanted to start a discussion/ conversation, which is coming along nicely imho. 3) I believe the chances of a crash on monday are slim (notice the question mark instead of : 'LOLZ MARKET WILL KRASH FOR SURE!!! ALL YOUS NOOBS ARE GOING TO LOSe YOUZ ASSES!1!!!!!!!1!!! LOLOLOL ROFLKOPTER) Thanks.
Ok deadwood, I"ll take the bait (I know I shouldn't) Oh enlightened Mr Deadwood, how should us mere mortals trade? And if we master this? can we sit at you feet and sing you songs, oh please ?