Discussion in 'Trading' started by Chuck Krug, Jun 2, 2012.
Market crash on monday?
For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .
For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Actually, I think SPX may rise on Monday. Correlated markets suggest this possibility. DAX has strong support at 6000 and has futures held that level despite SPX continued plunge throughout the day. DAX has some tendency to bottom before SPX, such as DAX's bottom in Sept 2011 before SPX bottomed in Oct 2011. Euro has become oversold and due for a continued short-term bounce. 30 yr is probably overbought in the short-run and may reverse back to ~150 as some money moves from safe haven to stocks.
If markets plunge on Monday, I get egg in my face, and all the above analysis was for naught. Market correlations aren't 1:1 and they become uncorrelated whenever the markets feel like it.
I'll be buying any lower lows on Sunday night or Monday in the future markets.
Look at the weekly charts of both ES and NQ.
The recent selloff looks like a minor retracement of the uptrend. Probabilities therefore suggest that this weakness should be bought.
Buying weakness has been the right trade to make since the 2008-09 lows so until it stops working it's the right strategy to employ.
Buying weakness is also a hard trade right now, and a hard trade is normally a good trade.
We're still in a bear trend, fella's. I'd wait for an inside day, or more likely, an outside reversal, followed by some strength. Wait and see is a better plan, here imo
I started this thread out of pure nostalgia. there used to be threads like this every weekend. Of course there hasn't been a crash on a monday since '87. But you know the old saying: Even a stopped clock is right twice a day
I'm short a bunch of small caps and have no intention of covering anytime soon. Looking to buy some DIA to hedge a bit though (and some collect some dividends) Don't know where I'll start buying DIA, we'll see.
Enjoy your weekend gents.
Why a crash?
No need to be a hero and try to pick a bottom before it has formed and support has proven itself.
I have a technical target at 1246,50 that I expect to get hit next week, possibly already on Monday. I think the 1250 zone may reverse this down trend, but I don`t make predictions.
Let`s just see what price do when we get there.
whats the point of waiting until they form
when they do, you get crap fills and still they can fail just as likely
bad business waiting
better to buy low and use proper risk
Never catch a falling knife.
If you`re nimble, you can get in near a bottom as long as you`re in the market and watching. I`m expecting a bottom at lower levels than this, so that`s why I would want to wait if it were a swing long.
At least use tight stops.
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