Market Crash? Not Yet.... So Far, Just Orderly Nervousness

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Scataphagos, May 12, 2022.

  1. deaddog

    deaddog

    Sorry Vinc, Didn't mean to get on your nerves. I'm sure you are providing a valueable service telling us about what you are doing. Kind of like listening to a weather forecast a day late.

    I know I don't have to read your posts but it's like driving by an accident, gotta take a look. I'm always looking to learn something new but so far you have been a disappointment.

    I had assumed you were more than 70% cash because you were 30% in stocks on tuesday and I'm sure the value of your stocks has dropped since then.
     
    #11     May 12, 2022
    beginner66 likes this.
  2. Correction…i am 70% cash on my 401k since 11/1/21.
     
    #12     May 12, 2022
  3. The media(?) glommed onto the notion of "-10% is a correction" and "-20% is a bear market". But a real bear market is also psychological.... month-after-month of grinding down with desperate longs agonizing over their losses. The notion of a "quick -20% = bear market" is ridiculous. The market can be down -20% but then recover relatively quickly. That's not "prolonged anguish and despair" by investors. What mostly makes a bear market is time. Consider the Nasdaq after the dot.com bust... -83% over 3 years. THAT's a bear market.

    Today's investors are like spoiled children. Market dips a bit and they start clamoring for the Fed to "do something". Years ago a dip of -25% was considered "just noise".
     
    #13     May 13, 2022
  4. easymon1

    easymon1

    post your short entries charts up?
     
    #14     May 13, 2022
  5. hint: pull out a daily spy and vix chart, mark your level of support and resistance for both for each day and trade according based on your stats and risk level. i do pair trading between uvxy/sqqq/tqqq/spxl
     
    #15     May 13, 2022
    easymon1 likes this.
  6. easymon1

    easymon1

    Show us? Post some charts?
     
    #16     May 13, 2022
  7. Market completed the described "5-waves down, impulse wave" @ 3855. That was either the entire W3 in the bear... in which case the bear will be more "average" than "severe"... and will likely be completed by the fall. OR... the impulse wave was actually "Wave 1 of Wave 3" of the bear.... in which case the bear will be much more severe and last into 2023 or later. (Personally, I think this is the more likely.) Can't know which it is at this time...

    Regardless of which is correct, market should rally here... 4200-4400 most likely upside target before turning down again.

    FWIW...
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
    #17     May 13, 2022
  8. busy trading the stonk market right now...maybe after market is closed.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
    #18     May 13, 2022
    easymon1 likes this.
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    upload_2022-5-13_10-55-38.png

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-25#post-5546083
    >
     
    #19     May 13, 2022
  10. even if it is not a big fall, it's always nice to remember about this: diversify, analyze, take action
     
    #20     May 18, 2022