Please note sarcasm is turned off.... My theory is the recent market highs in the Dow and S&P while the mid cap and small cap stocks were falling is the Fed is manipulating the market to keep consumer confidence high. Basically a pump by the Government and a Dump by the Smart Investors who understand what is really going on.
Damn! I hope the crash isn't beginning now. That's pretty intense selling at the open. I'm still long. Give me a chance to sell and get short equities, long bonds. I'm a swing trader!!
Ras72: After consultations with a stray dog, my neighbor's cat and a dead hamster it was convened that the current down move in the EURUSD pair is to be reversed tomorrow Friday 20140516. The statement comes after a sharp down move which brought the pair to lose nearly 300 pips in eight days sparking concern that the world economy could be at risk and was welcomed with great relief by the financial community. Late into Thursday's session heavy buying was already coming from the Russian central bank ahead of tomorrow's reversal. Patricia Takanawa reporting for Bluberg News
I believe a correction is in order over the next month (ES is currently at 1867 tonight). . My first target for swing low (talking over weeks to months) is 1763. But obviously not in straight line. But the process is underway and will take time to stair step down after false rallies. Final target is taking out 1714 , getting us to around 10 percent retrace. Technicals view - as you stated, divergences of S&P and Dow to the Nasdaq and Russell. Weak new highs/new lows. Leadership is missing from the momentum names. Chartists view - I can see the S&P with a "island reversal" pattern that just happened today on the daily chart. S&P recent all time highs were very very light volume . Sentiment view - S&P just hit its high this week, the vix just bottomed at around 11.88-12.15. Meaning when it came to actual dollars to peoples point of views, they did not fear the downside at all as they did not put their dollars to that belief. This lack of fear in the face of what looks to be very weak internals, just means that people have become very very complacent at these levels and new highs over these past 3 years and are they are basically sleep walking. Seasonal view - Sell in May , etc etc, you get the point. What negates this view? if we get a quick rip roaring jump up on unexpected news where all technicals reset to new highs and get back in line.
I just want to remind all of you that the market consults with me before any major changes. That is how a true trader operates!