Market commentary for 05/31/2007 Good day! The bulls are back!!! Yesterday's action showed that even after the strong pullback we saw in the market last Thursday, we still didnât have a short signal. The market found strength yesterday, with the SPY and the DIA saw new daily highs. The QQQQ still has a bit of a way to go to see its' previous high. The day started with a gap down into Tuesday's low. That brought concern for the possibility of selling, especially in the QQQQ, which could have easily become a trap. Because of that, my main focus at the open was to scan for possible trap charts. Our PAY trade was a textbook trap chart. After the initial weakness in the market, the rest of the day was reserved for the bulls. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05312007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05312007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05312007qqqq.jpg On the 60 min charts, we can see a nice comeback with a strong pace that finished with new intraday highs and new daily highs for the SPY and the DIA. Both broke to just a slightly higher high, however a new high nonetheless. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05312007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05312007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/05312007qqqq60.jpg More importantly right now is that the close would indicate more buying throughout the morning. The weekly chart supports this action, but we canât forget last Thursday's selling volume, which adds some caution to this action. I still think that we could see a scenario for a strong daily move up on large volume, which could signal the end of the weekly uptrend. The number of open long swings waits for that scenario. My focus hasn't changed. I will continue to look for intraday moves, and still believe that we are in a higher risk environment right now. The reason for that is the possibility of double top patterns especially if yesterday's volume doesn't support the long side. Volume is important now. If we see a strong move up, it must be supported with volume as that will prove that buyers are truly interested in new highs- not just slightly new highs or range action. If we will have that proof for a daily breakout to new highs, I will look to add positions to our open trades. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/01/2007 Good day! The month is over. On the monthly charts, we can see that we have another green bar that closed at highs. This chart shows us the market strength. The larger time frames are always very important to recognize market breathe. We have had a very strong market the last few months and we must respect that. It was much easier to trade on the long side than the short side, which is quite clear when looking at the charts. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007diamonthly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007spymonthly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007qqqqmonthly.jpg For me it is always important to scan using the monthly charts because that helps me to find future swing/day trade ideas. Yesterday the indices spent all day in consolidation. We can see a continuation pattern on the daily charts with enough room for another move up before we have any resistance. Only the QQQQ had resistance from itâs' channel line. For trend day traders yesterday was a very difficult day as range day trading is quite different than trend day trading. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007qqqq.jpg If we take a look at the 60 min charts we can see clearly yesterdayâs range action. It will be best if the Indices can stay in yesterday's range (blue lines) until the 20sma, which will bring the support needed for a possible move up. We can see consolidations forming right at the daily highs, which also shows the resistance areas and we must respect that. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06012007qqqq60.jpg Yesterday's highs and lows are very important areas now. A break to new highs with volume can lead us to a strong move up which is what I mentioned in yesterday's commentary. On the other side, a break under yesterday's low can lead to a daily double top pattern, and that can cause more consolidation or stronger correction. That is still not a short setup for me, but certainly must be a caution signal for open trades. Also it is important to know that most trend days came after narrow range days and that is the situation we have on the daily charts. On the trend days, it is important to mark the 60 min high/low, because lots of times a break above/below the 60 min high/low will determine the trend direction. All those reasons will keep me in watch mode today at the open. The market is strong and my bias is bullish, but before any we see any breakup to new highs, there is a possibility we could see more of a correction. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/04/2007 Good day! For the second day in a row, the market had a range day. The day started with a gap up that indicated the possibility of buying pressure. If you remember in the last commentary, I mentioned marking the 60 min high/low. You can see why that is important if you look at Friday's action. After the first 60 minutes, the Indices saw new lows and we trended down for half of the day. It was a slow trend down and not the kind of action I like to trade. It was a signal, however, for open long trades. The market is still strong and the weekly/monthly charts show that. Friday just wasnât ready for more action. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007diaweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007spyweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007qqqqweekly.jpg On the daily charts, we didnât see much change. We had slightly new highs with a range-type action. The QQQQ channel resistance still held. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007qqqq.jpg If we look at the 60 min charts, we can see that the 20sma is still holding. This support is very important for the possibility of a move up. If we wonât see a bounce from that support area, we could then see the possibility of more intraday correction and weakness. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06042007qqqq60.jpg Overall my bias is the same. The market is strong and I will look for more buying pressure. I will follow that 20sma 60 min area and that action will tell us what we can expect. We are again in the situation where all options are open. Either the uptrend can continue or a consolidation can begin or we could even start with a reversal. We donât have a clear signal at this point. Right now we have no other option then to follow Monday morning's action and see what we will get. If the Market goes up, we will be ready for new opportunities. If we should continue with this consolidation, then patience will be necessary. I donât see a short signal and right now it is dangerous to try to pick a top to short. That is always a risky game before we see confirmed reversal patterns. If we do see a reversal pattern then our bias can change. Until then the bulls will continue to rule. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/05/2007 Good day! When we look at the Indices yesterday, we can see that we had a 3rd range day in row without any significant changes. The day started with a gap down to intraday support areas and still within the 60 min ranges. The QQQQ and the SPY bounced from the open to the middle of the range, while the DIA needed more time for that. Eventually the DIA filled its' gap too, and closed near its' range high, as did the QQQQ and the SPY. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06052007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06052007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06052007qqqq.jpg The 60 min chart clearly shows us yesterday's range continuation, and also, more importantly, illustrates how all the indices closed above their 20 sma support areas. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06052007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06052007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06052007qqqq60.jpg Yesterday's close gives us hope today for a possible long continuation. All the Indices closed near their range highs and above their 20sma support area. For that pattern possibility, we want to see a strong breakout pace with higher volume. This will be prove that the market wants to go higher to new yearly highs. Monthly/weekly charts support that possibility and that will be my focus in the morning. Of course, everything depends on the market open. If the range action continues, then trading will contain to remain at high risk and we will look for a scalp market continuation. We had a nice day with individual names and that will stay the same if the market chooses not to breakout. Generally, nothing has changed. We must follow the market action with a bullish bias. I still will look for a strong breakout possibility. The short side continues to be reserved for individual names and intraday setups. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/06/2007 Good day! The Indices changed roles yesterday with the QQQQ being the strongest and the DIA being the weakest. The day started with a gap down to the 60 min range support area. After this opening weakness, the QQQQ tried to fill its' gap, but the DIA and the SPY's weakness didnât help in that mission. On the 60 min chart, we can see how important the 20sma area is. The last few days that area held and the Indices showed strong support, but after yesterday's opening below the 20sma that area became resistance. The DIA and the SPY couldnât break through it and fill their gap in the morning. In fact, the 11:00 reversal period brought more selling to new intraday lows. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007qqqq60.jpg If we take a look at the 5 min charts, we can see that the 200sma on the indices held the morning action and prevented the gap to fill. Lots of time when we have range/whippy action in the morning, as we did yesterday, we can expect an 11:00 reversal period. This also applies to when we have a trend in the morning . This 11:00 reversal period is one of the most important reversal period that I follow every day. On the 5 min charts, we can see that the Indices tried to hold the morning losses, but around 11:00 am EST they moved to new lows. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007dia5.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007spy5.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007qqqq5.jpg After these new lows, the Indices started with consolidation until another important reversal period at 15:00 pm EST. You can see that the indices started with a move up. The QQQQ closed its' gap before the end of the day while the weaker SPY and the DIA couldnât break above their 200sma 5 min and 20sma 60 min resistance area. If we look back at the 60 min charts, we can see that only the QQQQ stayed in a range. The DIA and the SPY's 60 min charts show more of a rounding high, which could lead to more indecision today. Because of that action, we had a divergence in the market that added risk to yesterday's trading. On the daily charts, we donât have much change and the 10sma is still holding. The DIA chart looks tired and the buying pace is slowing down, but that does not mean that we donât have the strength for another bounce to new highs. The same applies to the SPY. The QQQQ is holding best for now. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06062007qqqq.jpg Generally, nothing has changed. My bias is still on the long side, however, it look like the market needs some rest. We still donât have a reversal signal so I am still not looking for a swing move down, however, the weakness is good for intraday moves. Summer is close and we can expect more days like yesterday, so we must prepare for less opportunities then usual. But situation is not bleak as we will always have opportunities. My focus is on "own way" trades, like CMI yesterday. I will still look for another breakout with a strong pace, but if doesn't happen the âown wayâ charts will still be found thru my scanning, and intraday % lists. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/07/2007 Good day! The Bears came out in force and took control of the market. That is the short explanation of yesterday's action. The day started with a gap down. The SPY and the DIA's opened near Tuesday's low, while the QQQQ remained the strongest. Even still, it couldnât bring the whole market to fill the morning gap. Once Tuesdayâs lows were broken, there was more selling pressure. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06072007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06072007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06072007qqqq.jpg The SPY and the DIA closed under their 20sma daily support area, which is a very important area for a trending chart. The QQQQ is now the strongest and closed above its' 10sma on the daily chart. I still think that we could see another chance for a strong bounce and move up in to new highs, but right now that is more of a guess than something that the technical analysis is showing. I will keep this as a possibility; however, if we look technically, we can expect more selling pressure today. I would expect the selling to be in the morning, but nothing too strong. We can see that the Indices are near previous lows on the daily charts, which is the support area now. Also on the 60 min charts, we can see that we had three selling waves and can therefore expect a correction on the 60 min charts. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06072007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06072007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06072007qqqq60.jpg Because of that, I will look for a reversal on the 15/30/60 min charts today, after the possibility of some morning selling pressure. Since I think that the bears need a rest for a day or two, new shorts will be higher risk right now. Faster, scalp-type trades are less risky in this type of environment than day and swing trades. Generally, if we look at the daily charts, we can see that the bulls are loosing steam. If we don't see a strong bounce soon, we have a higher possibility of starting a daily/weekly consolidation (correction). This, after several months of an uptrend move, could bring more difficult trading in the future days/weeks. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/08/2007 Good day! The uptrend on the daily charts is over. After yesterday's strong selling the DIA and the SPY closed under their previous daily lows, indicating that the uptrend is over. The day started with a gap down and the Indices filled that gap right at the open. That was it from the bulls yesterday. The rest of the day, we saw strong selling pressure. Three things are important when we look at daily charts. First is the breaking under the previous low (the DIA and the SPY), second is volume (higher then average volume) and the third is the selling pace. We can see that the selling pace is stronger then the buying pace into highs, which indicates that the bears took control. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06082007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06082007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06082007qqqq.jpg On the 60 min charts, we can clearly see this selling pace. The indices broke under their 200sma strong support area, without any rest. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06082007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06082007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06082007qqqq60.jpg The indices closed at lows and I will look for more selling pressure at the open, including the possibility of a gap down. However, we will see what happens at the open. Right now new short trades are high risk because the market is extended and needs a rest. The daily CCI on the DIA is already in an oversold area (-252) and the SPY is near that area (-193) as well. Remember that oversold can become more oversold so without an intraday reversal pattern, it is a high-risk game to try to pick a bottom. The SPY is close to its' 50sma on the daily chart, which is the next strong support area. I will expect that area to hold the selling pressure for now. The DIA and the QQQQ still have room to get to that area. Because of that and with yesterday's close, I will expect selling pressure in the morning. Since shorts are risky now, the best plan is to follow the intraday market action for a reversal. We don't know if we will see that reversal or not, but with Friday as the last day of the week, there is a possibility that traders will look to protect short trades into the weekend. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Pickles!! How have you been over here for so long and I don't even see you!!! Anyway, great stuff. I hope all is going well for you. Anyone who is not familiar with Ivica's stuff, climb out from under your rock and start reading it, he's the greatest student I ever had. Not only a great analysts and trader, but one of the best human beings I know, and a true inspirtion to everyone. Brandon Ps..you know where to send the check right? :
Market commentary for 06/11/2007 Good day! Yesterday's action was in line with expectations. The day started with a small gap up. A gap of that size will usually be filled in the morning, which is exactly what happened on Friday. After that, we saw the expected weakness and a bounce to the open area. We saw a consolidation and tight range action until the 13:00 EST reversal period, when the Indices started to bounce. We had a stronger bounce then I anticipated, but the action was still in line with my overall expectations. On the 60 min charts, we can see that the SPY and the DIA closed right under their 200sma, which is their stronger intraday resistance area, while the QQQQ found resistance at its' daily 20sma. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007qqqq60.jpg After the end of the week, it is always good to take a look at the weekly charts. We can see how the 10sma is an important support area when we have a strong trend. The \indices found support there and strongly bounced from it. The QQQQ looks the strongest and like it is only taking a rest, but we still have to consider the strong volume and the red bars. This tells us that the Indices need a rest, as explained in Fridayâs commentary. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007diaweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007spyweekly.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007qqqqweekly.jpg We can see that clearly on the daily charts. The QQQQ is holding its' daily uptrend line (blue line), but the SPY and the DIA definitely lost it, and will need more time for a possible recovery. Yesterday action is telling us that we shouldn't expect a selling continuation to new lows today, but that doesn't mean that we wonât see a pullback to daily lows. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06112007qqqq.jpg The SPY and the DIA still have strong intraday resistance areas at their 200sma 60 min. The QQQQ has its 20sma daily as resistance. I will expect that this will hold for today. It will all depend on the morning's action, but I wonât be surprised if we stay in a range of Friday's high and lows. There is also a possibility we see more upside pressure until the SPY and the DIA see their 20sma daily resistance and the QQQQ sees itâs daily highs. However it turns out, one thing is for sure, and that is we will have higher risk for swing trades until the market finds direction again. After two big daily bars we need some rest for low risk setups. That is the usual market action; move-rest-move so now we need rest. Those who follow me know this is the basic action and everything is based on that. In the rest period, risk will increase for swing trades and faster intraday moves will be favorable. Focus will be, as always, on the strongest and weakest names, and on the âown wayâ charts. We can only respond to the action we see in the morning. The only scenario I am not expecting is that we will see new daily lows in the morning. Nothing is for sure, however, so be careful and reduce size and the number of trades. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic
Market commentary for 06/12/2007 Good day! We saw a slower day until the 13:00 pm EST reversal period. At that time, the DIA and the SPY touched their daily 20sma resistance area. This served as too big of a resistance after Thursday's selling pressure. The 14:00 pm EST reversal period was the next important area, where the QQQQ gave up all of itâs' morning gains and closed the day in negative territory. The market was stronger today then I expected, but it looks like the Indices have started a daily triangle formation and after yesterday's bar, my expectation is for more indecision. I really don't expect much strength today but rather more action between the 20sma (blue line) and the 50sma (green line) on the daily charts. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06122007dia.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06122007spy.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06122007qqqq.jpg From the intraday charts, the QQQQ (60 min) traded as expected, at least in the morning. The selling pace was stronger than the buying pace and that could result in more selling. The 20sma and 200sma are the next strong support areas. The SPY and the DIA are at their 200sma and their next support area (20sma) is very close, so there is not much room for a move. I will expect the action to trade between the resistance and the support areas. In other words we can expect to see action between yesterday's high and Fridayâs low, which could result in a daily pattern where swing trading will again be plausible.. http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06122007dia60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06122007spy60.jpg http://www.ivicacharts.com/diagrams/2007/06122007qqqq60.jpg If the Indices break in any direction without a daily consolidation, then the risk will increase for swing traders. Right now, it looks like the Indices are starting to form a daily consolidation and a strong possibility for a triangle. Without clear direction, swing trades will be higher risk, and âown wayâ charts will again be the best option. The focus will be on intraday moves and own way charts, as we saw in BCSI yesterday. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me. Good luck trading today!!!! Ivica Juracic