As often you're totally correct. This is a BIG one to get right gnome. The media is ridiculously complicit. How many "just like 1929" stories have you seen the past week. It's NOTHING like 1929! 1.We ALREADY had the GREAT CRASH. It was 2000-2002. Anyone thinking this will be an identical repeat will be WAITING IN VAIN. 2. I haven't noticed depository banks closing, soup lines, folks jumping out of windows, increased apple carts on street corners..... 3. Last night 36,000 people watched a meaningless late season baseball game in beleaguered Detroit Michigan. Trust me: In 1931 American sports teams weren't playing in front of sold out crowds. 4. This is the 1970's. Nothing new but the dollar amounts are bigger. So is the wealth bigger. 5. While many have been hammered MOST of America is chugging along as usual. 6. I hope I get a bunch of ET losers arguing with me, calling me stupid ect. Last week you guy's gave me perfect cover to make 27k in about a half hour on a puny ES long.
Not too familiar with the 1970s but I don't recall it being notable for any bank failures. Certainly nothing on the scale of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers, and AIG being brought to their knees. The 1930s on the other hand.... Maybe this will help http://www.econlib.org/LIBRARY/Enc/GreatDepression.html
Now THAT was a genuine bear market... at least in tech and related. But overall I don't think it was all that bad. As the techs plummeted, you can see rotation out of them into financial, health, small and midcaps.... those just come to mind without viewing all the charts... may have been other decent sectors, too.
We're in a stag-flationary recession. Its a mix of 1970s commodity/dollar debasement with Government bailouts and spectacular RE-investment blow ups. It has the potential to worsen with a consumer credit tank, later on... I firmly believe we're going to see the S&P do a 1990 Nikkei. If the Plunge Protection Team, Bailouts and Circuit Breakers wern't in place, we would have already seen a crash. Bear, Lehman, Fannie and Freddie etc were nearly bankrupt while their shares traded at 100 bucks +. Something to think about.
Then why the smug asshole reply? You admitingly don't know something but then post a link to the Great Depression. In 1974 Franklin National Bank went down. Up until that time it was the biggest failure in U.S. history. They were the 9th biggest bank in the country. Two major brokerage firms also became insolvant. Goodbody and du Pont had 500,000 customers at risk because back then there wasn't an SIPC. In 1975 an NYSE seat sold for less than a New York City taxi medallion. New York City tetered on bankruptcy:
IMO you're 90% right achilles but I don't see stock market valuations high enough for a Nikkei like decline. Their shit was coming off 80x p/e's. The banking situation is clearly all together similar and the housing outcome will be the same as well. It's interesting to note though that even after almost two decades of asset implosion in Japan, Tokyo STILL has the highest real estate prices in the world.
so then if you believe that things will work themselves out why is our gov't so frightened? why are they intruding into the financial markets if nothing bad has or is happening? the market pulls back a little and now they want to change the rules in the middle of the game. what say ye? btw i don't think your stupid. you raise some valid points. I'd like to see your reply though.
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=137818&perpage=6&pagenumber=3 CD's are woefully mis priced. Risk across the board is STILL priced too cheap. We didn't dodge a bullet here. We're shot and I suspect wounded on the brink of mortal danger. Pabst what am I missing??