Jimmy, What breakout are you talking about? I had short at 1259.50 which it sailed through. Long at 1271, which it never reached. BTW, no I didn't trade it but I do still watch. 4re
I had a breakout at 1265.00 based on the previous session (that's they way I use S/R - it may not be correct, but it makes sense to me ). The market made a high of 1267.00 and then dropped back. But more importantly, the casino analogy that you gave is very apropro, and is very much in-line with the "real market code", regardless of the methodology (S/R, Divergence, Trend Following, multiple Time Frames, etc.). Best, Jimmy Not that FT's method isn't great, it is ... for catching trends early and riding them, and he trades an instrument which is very "trendy", so there is definitely a lot of positive expectation there. But I think the concept of a "market code" shouldn't be applied to just one method of trading ... because there are a lot of traders here who trade in a variety of different styles, instruments, etc.
The words trading and speculating are nothing but euphimisims. Let's not kid ourselves. Trading is nothing more than a controlled form of gambling. 4re, If you don't mind my asking, what are the MA's you use for your trading style. MAs was the first thing I abandoned as a beginning trader. After a few inqueries, poster Porgie said I had discovered his secret. It is the channel breakout system I described. He then thought he made a mistake and recanted. Since this isn't your secret, you wouldn't mind me sharing it, would you Porgie?? 10 minute chart. Channels. Moving averages. Anyone have any ideas which MAs would work best in this situation?
Jimmy, This casino analogy is from Mark Dougls, I sure wish I could take credit for it because he is right. And you to are right on the mark. As long as you treat it like a casino. I.E. A set of defined rules. And if you can not define all the rules it doesn't work. But one once you define all the rules. Trade it. Over the long run you should be profitable as long as you stick with the rules and take all the trades that match the defined rules. Casinos have it right in that they hire dealers that have to go by a strict set of rules or risk losing their jobs. In trading sometimes we have way too much freedom. And that freedom is what makes us go against the rules we establish. If you don't have this book let me know and I'll help you establish these rules along with your method if you would like to take his challenge. Regards, 4re
Floortradr, I tend to use the 20 and 60 day EMA if I am looking for the crossover. If I am just trading with a trend I mainly focus on the 20 day. I think with practice you can really use any of them though. I would just use the one that fits your needs most. And just for a note I don't really trade by using moving averages I just use them as a tool because as indicators go they don't lag as much as some others. As far as the channel breakout system I have used this as well when identifying my S/R levels. Sometimes the channel is the best form of S/R on the chart. BTW, Porgie if you are watching this thread. Howdy, hope your trading is going well. 4re
Last year, when market monk was all the rage, I spent countless hours trying to crack his code. I considered a channel breakout method and found it is profitable. What concerned me were the whipsaws; which I define as you earn 2 ticks, you lose 3. My approach is not to maximize winners and minimize the losers, it is to control whipsaws. My method for an all day approach is technically profitable but I do not like the probabilities it offers. a trade every 15 minutes is a lot on average. If my bankroll was greater AND my comissions was pennies (like being an exchange member) then I would consider it. Considering I use mainly market orders (a limit order means the market is moving against you Mr. Dick-for-a-tick unless the order is above the market for longs or below it for shorts). Using a market order means I am 2 ticks in the hole at the start of every trade (the spread plus comission costs). With that realization, one can see how the odds are really stacked against the average trader. A big rule of mine is do NOT pick tops and bottoms. I would rather pick up consistent, handful of pennies than to try and grab the occasional quarter. This was a big problem I had with trading with market monk. For a "20" year veteran, he constantly tried to cherry pick the market and then got mad and frustrated when the market did not conform to what he thought it should do. He is such a failure in life that his ego desperately needs to prove itself in some venue. He chose trading. He may have scammed my 5K but I have peace of mind. Anyone build a fallout shelter yet? He did. Everytime I think of cherry-picking the market, he comes to mind. Very powerful association that keeps me away from it. P.S. Betting with the trend also works in Vegas. If a crap shooter has a hot hand, don't bet against him.
The important thing is that you find a bonafide trading method that works for you. Like I said earlier, as long as it is well defined. It doesn't matter what the method it. For me I have studied breakouts for 15 yrs. All different kinds of breakouts. I feel very comfortable trading that way and no matter what market I trade I can tailor it to my benefit. Some people like divergences. I have been watching Romik, he is making divergence trading look easy. Doesn't matter as long as you master it. Then just trade it. Over and over again. I have used this analagy before but it bears repeating. I used to box. I had developed a very strong left hook. The problem with a hook is you need to set it up with something. So I developed a real strong right jab to get me in and I would use this combo fight after fight. Right jab, left low then high hook. Worked like a charm in a bar overseas or in a ring against a trained fighter. Other punches are great but I made these mine. That is how I fought and that is how I trade. Hope this helps... Best to you, 4re
i am watching.......the only problem with porgie is he has about a dozen "secrets"...nobody can make them work...........everybody has the secrets that everybody else has..........trading them is the problem.....the biggest secret of all is managing our minds, not our trades........all can see the price moving up and down, the question is, which way is it moving next? even the next 5 min time frame........?????....fakeout or breakout??? retracement or reversal????
think Las Vegas and think get out now while u have money left....eliminate the risk to almost zero and you have it......