My experience... "occasionally", not "multiple times". In the plays I've indicated over the last week... there were ZERO false breaks! (There was one "failed hold", but that's a different chapter.)
I think trading is very simple in theory but rather hard in practice and master, like golfing and some other sports.
@Laissez Faire, has it occurred to you that there are individuals who simply don't want to / refuse to learn? They keep on repeating the exact same mistakes yet believe in different outcomes each time. That is textbook idiocy. @Scataphagos does not come across as someone who has the capability to reflect and instrospect, he vehemently rejects any ideas that might challenge his view of historical price based lines, curves, rectangles,. Let him, they are in aggregate what feeds this market. And for that I am thankful.
The thing is though that trading, although subjective at the analysis stage, is very objective at the results stage. All one needs to do is show a very healthy PnL, and then all of a sudden their ideas of how to trade have merit. This ET place is all messed up when it comes to trading discussion. First should come the proof of knowing what you are doing, and then you can help teach or share some wisdom, etc. But for some reason on ET, people just love to share how a person should trade, and not back this up at all. Its really the wild west at a time when they sold all sorts of potions to cure all your ailments. Basically, anyone could write anything on a bottle and sell it as a cure.
Absolutely agree, though I would not go as far as demand proof unless someone really pushes the limits. But the fallacy of market results, unless rigorously analyzed over a prolonged period, is that they can deceive the individual in that even the dumbest ideas get validated every now and then. Some not so smart individuals derive all sorts of conclusions from such. Lastely, I would say that I love various opinions, AS LONG as they make objective LOGICAL SENSE. The idea or concept has to be based on some reasonable premise. Just drawing a line and saying that one believes this is where support lies is incredibly stupid and even disrespectful to others' intellect and time
After being a here a long time, I have seen far too much of people who say one thing but do another. If you actually learned about how they trade, and then saw their trades, you would realize half of the trades aren't according to the plan. Its just like when someone ask a young person who their ideal mate would be, and then they end up marrying someone totally different. When a person is sharing their trading ideas, we are assuming that they actually know precisely what they are doing and why. But in reality, unless its an algo executing code, they are going to be very bad at explaining the nuance of what they are doing.
It's usually not that difficult to discern whether an individual knows what they are talking about or not, I would say after a couple posts. Also whether it makes any logical coherent sense or not what they are talking about.
Trust me, its far too easy to sound smart in trading and yet you can't make a dollar yourself. I could name names on here, but I won't bother. The very best proof is a real time call of your trade with entry price. I don't even care if you don't have a stop or target in mind yet. But at least now, anyone can look at the time stamp of the post and look on a chart to see if it makes sense. I also like charts with the trades marked by the platform, but this can of course be faked, so if the results are too good, one has to question. Lastly, a screenshot of trade fills from broker or platform is also good, cause I can plot them myself on a chart, but this can also be faked, but at least its a start.
Perhaps then you are looking for the wrong thing on this platform? Why do you care to validate individuals' performance? How cares what someone makes or not. I don't. I care about logical and coherent arguments and theses that can add value in my repertoire of tools and ideas. What really gets me is the stupid approach by many who scribble some circle and lines on charts that are either validated or invalidated by future price action. Incredibly useless.
And how do you evaluate what is logical? We have some members here who claim to do well with Astrology or the Jack Hershey method, which to me seem like crap, but if they can show their trades and prove that their approach has an edge, I'm open to listen. If you find something logical, you are already using your own framework for evaluation. My framework begins with seeing the trades that a person or system takes.