Short YHOO @ 34.94 Target 33.50 today Exit 35.06 Edit: rethinking profit target b/c the daily and weekly 20sma's are at ~34.30. My initial profit target was based on this bar hanging from the hourly 40sma looking to drop to the 200sma - if I may personify a candlestick.
Closed the trade half at .71 and half at .74. I just realized the t/s is running about 4-5 minutes behind the computer clock. I can't trade blind.
hi in and long, thanks for the nice writing. I use a variety of technicals and oscillators but they are all off the shelf stuff. I use NO fundamental analysis except i look at sector action (ie fi metals or steels are strong etc). I'm short NQ from 1466, so my stop is past breakeven. As price action develops it gives me a better idea of where we are going. I'm expecting to perhaps cover some friday and looking to go long us dollars/short eurodollars looking for about a 3 cent rally there. lets see what happens! I always move my stop to breakeven once I get move in my direction and I usually trade with around 6:1 odds. To be honest, if your patient and wait for setups, use good odds and money management (ie only bet big when the odds are in your favor and you've got soem profits you can afford to lose) I dont do anything special. most Et's would laugh at me cause my system is so simple, its largely based on jesse livermore (trendfollowing) type stuff. so here i am short nq futures from 1466, I'm sitting on a nice profit right now, but you never know! Ideally worst case I should be able to get out with a small profit if everything goes wrong at this point, but you never know maybe they catch osama or something and the market blows thru my stops... good trading!
empee thanks for the post. Simple is best, imo. I quoted the above because it gave me such a good laugh. Here you are cruising with some nice profits and oooops they catch osama! That was funny. Vhehn thanks for the oil update.
The sentiment is not turning positive yet as expected. After a small expected pull up the sentiment is in a dark red zone (slightly negative).
First bounce up off the lows was roughly 6 handles in the S&P. Look for yet another 6 handle rally from the sideways movement for a target of 1154.00 on the ES.
I could only give you guys a general idea. What we do is we integrate the differences between cumulative ask sizes and bid sizes on 5 top levels of the book. These ratios are then weighted by the level it self and the volatility of the book. On top of that we calculate the put/call cumulative sizes and normalize them over the traded volume. There are some other things we count like volatility, cancelation/replace orders frequency, frequency of the price following the bid vs ask etc. It is very complex. I have spent 14 years building it. The results are presented in a visual format that looks something like the picture attached. We have those "spectrums" for each time frame too.
Here is the spectrum of 5m NQ. As you can see the sentiment is slowly turning to be positive but the majority of the bars are still below the equilibrium line. It means that the long trades are still too risky and the short trades are not advisable. So, it is neutral right now. Its just a small example.