I agree but I think alot of the money's already been made in the last couple of weeks, particularly in the internet sector. Smart money is what caused this rally and now they should be looking to unload some shares. Maybe even start some shorts. Look at the recent weakness in YHOO and AMZN. I'd be willing to be that hedge funds and maybe some mutual funds are lightening up their positions. Maybe mutuals expecting some redemptions in the next week and want to lock in some gains. Higher than average volume on friday in YHOO and AMZN, even given last couple of weeks high avg. volumes, and lower prices. At the same time, it will be interesting to see what the mutual fund flows due to the market next week. My guess is that there's moderate mutual fund buying next week, with hedge funds selling to them. Smart money's lightening up, dumb money's getting in. My $.02.
Oh yea, Hamilton is a great chartist...NOT! That fool was majorly short in March at the bottom, and continued to remain bearish all the way up. Many of his followers got blown out.
Silly top/bottom calling wabbits. http://www.stockcharts.com/education/What/ChartAnalysis/rectangle.html Buy the dips, sell the rallies until the "trend" changes.
The hard fact was that Greenspan declared irrational exuberance in 1996, and those who fundamentally shorted the market on that basis blew out. I don't think it is a good idea for traders to confuse hard economic facts with market dynamics.