One way to learn is to trade it using your real money. This is to speed up your learning curve. But make sure you do the relevant documentation so that you can reflect on it later.
I think we go lower, but Mar 2020 lows is about a 40% drop from where we are now. To go that low will require a huge loss of confidence. Something like US losing reserve currency status. Maybe some kind of world war. Maybe another pandemic. Hard to see what could get us that far.
The 2000 and 2008 bear markets both had a 50% retrace. The COVID lows are about that from ATH. It's not only possible, it's normal.
Am looking to reverse my Index positions below 1800 in S&P. Dems should be enjoying the meltdown, extremely high gas prices, wait till we pay 8 bucks a gallon, real estate slowdown-prices will start coming down, interest rates will go up much higher. Inflation will keep going up cause Dems keep giving free money. Cash is king when real estate takes a major hit, slowdown in furniture, outdoor equipment. Increase in auto parts, buying used. Dems doing so much wrong, going to be easy for Trump to rebuild America.
Remember this MAGAzz - 2 years ago when a very stable genius was still in office giving Clorox gargling advice? -35.4% in less than a month's time.
That's true. One other factor that I think which is present today that was not present in any prior market drop is the overallocation in equities due to people stretching for yield. Around 2007, I recall getting around 5% APY from an ETrade money market account which was about what the 10 year treasury was paying. So if you were near retirement or in retirement, you could still collect a positive real rate without taking on the risk of equities. Well, the Fed took that option away. As a consequence, I suspect that there are a lot of investors in equities that should not be based on their risk tolerance and investment horizon. At some point, if market keeps dropping, I suspect that they will panic and focus on preservation on capital rather than return on capital. Higher yields on treasuries will only encourage that behavior.