Damn, I respect his opinion, but I sure didn't realize his ability to control the markets. Thanks for the heads up. He must really be evil.
I actually will be using any rally on Fed cuts to add shorts. FYI I am trading from my high tech HQ on my private island surrounded by white cats, goldfish and beautiful girls in beehive hairstyles, plastic mini skirts and high boots. Did you believe them when they said nobody manipulates the markets these days, Comrade?
Let me tell you the Vix has not spike enough to call this a bottom. In 1987 it spiked to a high of 172.80, in 1998 it hit 60, 2001-2002 it spiked in the upper 50's on several occasions. Not enough fear and capitulation to call this a bottom yet. Next stop SPX 1220 and than ultimately 1160. Yes atleast another 10% downside. Yes there will be some very hard up days on short covering only to fail and head lower.
TT1 has it exactly right. It is fine to be optimistic, but a foolish optimist is another thing altogether. Yes the markets will rally every time the Fed lowers rates. If fact the Fed can in principle, not in practice though, push the market to infinity by making the dollar worth zero. Consequently the fact that the market is tanking in spite of Fed heroics should have told you something. This is not a bottom but an intermediate step to forming a bottom somewhere below 1200, likely around 1150 as TT1 has suggested.. For several years it has been clear that we were headed for an eventual financial crisis due to a combination of problems in mortgage financing brought on by excessively lax regulation coupled with historically low interest rates brought on by the Greenspan excesses of late 2003. (Having an idiot in the Whitehouse has not exactly been helpful either.) These problems are only made worse, in the long run, by the government insisting on giving you borrowed money at interest. The long range outlook is not good so long as non-investment, deficit spending is worsening, as it is now. Frankly, the only thing saving your ass is the fact that the world is awash in dollars, and none of the Central banks want to see the dollar become totally worthless. Don't count on your luck holding forever though.
I am sure you are snorting cocaine off of the backs of dozen blond es on your two acre paradise in the sea.......you sound so lovely..
OK lets see if we go down first. VIX has not spiked enough, I somehwat agree on that one with you. There may be some downside left. BTW is this Technical Analysis or just your emotions talking back to you? When are you going to have your imaginary recession.. please let me know the dates.
Where in the bear market handbook does it say we have to close 20 percent from the peak and not just fall 20 percent from the peak. The GDP numbers are adjusted for inflation. To get those numbers they assume inflation is under 1 percent. The government doesn't want you to know the inflation they are creating. That is why it looks like we are not in recession. But we are.
We only deal with facts and figures and empirical data. We do not put out emotions and measure things as to how we " feel" . Neither do we get involved and predict things and go into the business of fortune telling. I know its hard for you do that..show me 2 quarters of negative GDP in this country and I will agree with you that we are in recession. Failing to do that you have nothing but emotions wrecking havoc on your brainpower.
Bwahahahaha... I guess it was a fact when Bear Stears President came out a week ago on CNBC and told his investors "There is no problem, I assure you." Is that fact, just because someone says it? Do you believe what everyone tells you? The 'fact' that Bear got bought out for $2...does that mean they are worth that? OR are they worth NEGATIVE $2..? Yes...they are worth less.. You can't get negative GDP when the government fudges the numbers....If you multiply anything that's close to 0 you get close to zero...and that's what they are doing...there is no inflation and hence there is growth. If they admited there was inflation, there would be Q3, 2007 and Q4, 2007 BOTH NEGATIVE... You need to learn your history boy... read what Burns and Miller did as Fed Presidents... You have no clue...