market behavior in a recession/leading up to

Discussion in 'Trading' started by krazykarl, Jul 31, 2006.

  1. DeepFried

    DeepFried

    I was responding to his given number of 80%.

    The current probability depends on who you ask. According to an old paper by the NY Fed, the probability of a recession is only about 30% right now. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf
     
    #11     Aug 25, 2006
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  2. moo

    moo

    If the yield curve inversion reaches 50bp, recession probability rises to 100%. Has it been that inverted yet?
     
    #12     Aug 28, 2006
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