Market acting a bit heavy

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DeepFried, Oct 18, 2006.

  1. CPI number comes in great but market can't hold highs. Financials, which have been huge leaders, losing bids. Techs not holding highs.

    The shorts might finally be getting a trade here.
  2. 2nd day in a row of distribution.
  3. piezoe


    I would guess that some of the money that went to the sidelines in late August and early September may reappear after the election. That would be bullish going forward. In the meantime the market is acting toppy. Today, in fact, was sort of a minor blow-off. Some position and swing traders, most probably, will want to be out before the election and come back in after the smoke clears. These factors will likely weigh on the market between now and the election. But that does not mean we are done with the Bull Market by any means. We just don't know, and have to take what the market gives us. The indices closed mixed, but considering how we started the day and how we ended, and the huge reversal in breadth that occured, i would have to think the bias is slightly to the downside as of now. Serious weakness in the SOX bodes ill for the NASDAQ.

    That's my take on the situation. So what is yours?
  4. Hey, what happened to don't make predictions about the future? :D We sucked you back in to the market chit chat.

    I agree with you, the bias is likely shifting slightly to the downside. I think the market is about 30% bearish, 20% bullish and 50% can be convinced either way. With bids getting a bit tired, if OPEC spooks people tomorrow and the market rethinks the PPI/CPI numbers as "glass half empty" then we could have a pullback. I think the market's choppy the remainder of expiration week and we have the highest chance of a minor correction next week. But longer term, I'm still bullish.

    I would not be surprised if we get a feeble spike in the market with AAPL and EBAY earnings early on tomorrow and then we close lower on the major indices. And AAPL finishes unch'd. Everyone on earth expected an upside surprise and the bid's going to get hit.

    The Oct 75 straddle on AAPL was selling for 4.50 to 4.70 today. AAPL traded in the aftermarket just shy of 80 and is now down to about 77.5. LOL.