A month ago... Yes. The point isn't to predict it's to use probabilities. Meaning first week, second, third, week etc it takes some people longer to catch on than others (I certainly wasn't short at the top) but once you have enough information IE: The indicators you use, fundamental analysis, news, price action and etc, whatever it is or combination. Once enough of those line up for the individual person you can start to piece together, there's a high probability of the selling to continue. Isn't this what consistent trading is suppose to be all about? Not people debating and trying to call the tops and bottoms, there's way too much time spent on this.
Once there is a high probability, you've already missed the boat. There is next to no chance we don't print our way out of this mess.
Well I can speak for myself only, I don't know what or how you trade. But I started to take a lot more short trades once I realized what was going on(which was roughly 2 weeks ago). For me my larger charts are just as bearish now, as they were bullish months ago. Which means for me short set ups will work better and often generate more downside than normal(which I get is obvious just by the ATR). So, I do not agree on "once high probability, you've missed the boat". That is my point I am not trying to pick the tops or bottoms.... and there's been plenty of short trades to take the last 2+ weeks.
and long I dare say. bears make money bulls make money.....pigs get slaughtered. this is a competitive jungle we exist in. and the Devil take the hindmost. this is the worst fundamentals I have ever seen in my 40 years of market experience. so that has to change. if history in similar situations is any judge the vaccine will be found and then stocks will rebound so a 1-2 years perspective this will be seen as another great opportunity.
We already are, it just so happens that trying to administer all of that printing and funnel it into the right hands is a damn near impossible task. As others have alluded to, 2008 was a different ball of wax since the insolvency was concentrated in a few sectors. Now, it's global and every sector (almost). Print, print, print but each passing hour the problems get worse.
NO Just wait until the next few unemployment claims come out, plus the unholy NFP! And GDP numbers! We're screwed, dude.