Mark Minervini (Meltdown)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by trader778, Oct 18, 2021.

  1. deaddog

    deaddog

    #71     Oct 24, 2021
  2. Interesting video. I would say this his process is fairly retail (anyone with some money can call themselves a fund manager, sadly, just like everyone with a brokerage account calls themselves a trader :p).

    To get a good understanding of how sophisticated fund managers actually manage risk, check out this primer (from 2003 but still good):

    sm20030428.pdf (actuaries.org.uk)

    Most managers will use a combination of the risk management tools listed below (VaR, factor, and variance/stats are the primary ones).

    Some snippets from the paper:
    upload_2021-10-24_14-40-17.png


    upload_2021-10-24_14-40-54.png


    Review of risk models:
    upload_2021-10-24_14-42-2.png


    these are the main types of risk management techniques used:
    upload_2021-10-24_14-42-36.png

    upload_2021-10-24_14-42-59.png

    upload_2021-10-24_14-43-23.png

    upload_2021-10-24_14-43-46.png

    upload_2021-10-24_14-44-22.png
     
    #72     Oct 24, 2021
    YuriWerewolf likes this.
  3. I feel generally ok about performance because I have limited my factor and industry exposures -- meaning that I derive almost all of my returns from selection (I am a good stock picker).

    ytd unlevered (censored acc number:
    upload_2021-10-24_15-9-55.png

    factor risk:
    upload_2021-10-24_15-13-39.png

    risk metrics:
    upload_2021-10-24_15-9-8.png
     
    #73     Oct 24, 2021
    YuriWerewolf, shuraver and fan27 like this.
  4. fan27

    fan27

    I don't agree with all of your conclusions, but you are trading what you preach and have good results...so carry on and congrats on the good year so far!
     
    #74     Oct 24, 2021
  5. deaddog

    deaddog

    Speculator! not trader I refer to myself as a Speculator.

    Is there not some regulatory body that says whether or not you can manage other peoples money? Or can you just set up a web site and call yourself a hedge fund?
    We have to define simple. :)
    upload_2021-10-24_15-57-29.png
    This stuff is too far over my head.
    The only thing I really picked up on is the explanation of why all the different risk models don't work.
     
    #75     Oct 24, 2021
  6. @deaddog
    It’s just that not all risk management approaches work all the time, so it’s best to look at risk across different dimensions.

    Probably the best and easiest risk management approach is to use reduce portfolio covariance. You can overlay your stops, but reducing covariance means your individual positions are less correlated to each other. You’d want to compare the covariance of your portfolio vs your benchmark. If everything is correlated just pick the best stock.
     
    #76     Oct 24, 2021
  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    With a momentum portfolio don't I want a positive covariance?

    Isn't my optimal risk control to be out of stocks when the momentum stops? Don't even need simple Pythagoras. :)
     
    #77     Oct 24, 2021
  8. smallfil

    smallfil

    That is why hedge funds take months to get into position. If they bought into any stock all at once, the stock price will skyrocket. By buying at small enough quantities, none of the retail traders have a clue that hedge funds are buying into a stock heavily.
     
    #78     Oct 24, 2021
  9. deaddog

    deaddog

    That could be a problem for a momentum strategy. By the time they get their position filled the move is over. Us little guys have the odd advantage.
     
    #79     Oct 24, 2021
  10. high covariance means you’re not benefitting from diversification. if you have a high covariance portfolio you should just pick the best stock. Ideally you would only add another position if it was not highly correlated. To some degree they will be correlated but that’s where you compare yourself vs your benchmark.
     
    #80     Oct 24, 2021