Mark Fisher's Sushi Roll

I hope this is the correct place for this.

In Mark Fisher’s book he defines a Sushi Roll as an early indicator or a possible trend reversal. He basically compares 5 bars (inside bars) to the next 5 bars (outside bars), he says the time frame isn’t important as long as your are consistent with comparing the latest 5 increments of time with the prior 5 increments of time. I’ve watched a few seminars that he has held, but I couldn’t get an exact answer.

I’m hoping someone more proficient in using this early indictor can shed some light on a few questions I have, and possibly post some charts of where a sushi roll has taken place.

1. MBF says it must be 5 increments of time, but it doesn’t matter as long as your are consistent.. Why 5 bars? Could someone use any number of bars, as long as they are consistent with the same number of outside bars, inside bars?

2. Does the Sushi Roll have to close above the inside bars AND below the inside bars to be valid? E.G. If a stock/commodity has been in an established down trend, does the outside bars have to first close below the inside bar, then close above the inside bars? Or would it be valid if after a consolidation at the bottom of a downtrend, the outside bar closes above the inside bar, then its confirmed by another close above the previous high outside bar?

3. What is the logic behind this concept?

E.G. If a stock/commodity has been in an established downtrend, then proceeds to consolidate. The people who were not in the first downtrend are looking for a spot to get in short, or the people who were in are looking for a reason to add. The logical spot might be a break of the consolidation lower, close on below the inside bars. Then they are trapped when a proceeding outside bar closes above the inside bars, but wait it out? Then the confirmation bar above the previous outside bar is the short squeeze forcing everyone to cover?

I’m just looking for more clarity as to what constitutes a valid sushi roll, any examples would be appreciated.

 

I've tested sushi roll backwards and forwards using 3,4,5,6 bars and have not found a decent enough statistical advantage. I did it 2 years ago in stocks which prob won't trend as much due to beta with the SP. It may be ok with futures . Then again,. I think MBF sushi roll is also another person's x bar breakout strategy somewhere in the tech analysis world so it is not groundbreaking in the least bit.

 

When I heard Fisher on The Money Show he was talking spread/pairs trading nothing on ACD or anything else. Of course one of the Hari Krashna brothers was there so......

 

just out of the blue i went to this oval spot before the selloff ....edit..know nothing about the 5 bars but in this case it would pay to study them

 

if you start here and count the bars every 5th was a reversal, zig zagging before the dump, the last one didnt reverse, the zig zags should make you alert for a big move , i always thought they were topping moves but in this case we were already in a downturn

 

I meant to post this yesterday but forgot..

This is the chart of the ES on Wed Oct 27, 2010, and I believe it was a perfect sushi roll. This is a 10min chart.

I subscribe to Mark Fisher's Daily ACD data. Part of what I look at is what happened 30 trading day's prior as he believes they repeat themselves. I haven't followed the information long enough to have an accurate assessment of this, but use the ACD method for overall feel of the market. So yesterday's 30 trading days ago +/- value was a 1, which according to him says that the market will sell off early, fail to make an A down, and reverse to make an A up, then close within the opening range. Yesterday we sold off right on the open, failed to make an A down, consolidated, then put in a sushi roll only to trade back through the opening range.