Thanks for your insight. If I might ask, what do you consider a reliable timeframe to define "trend of the market" for this .... daily? weekly? ... or perhaps shorter? (hourly)
I almost never hold overnight. My time frames for matching market trends with a stock doing a second pass through the OR is 10 and 15 minutes, as this is usually only valid for the first 1.5 to 2 hours of trading. It doesn't have a good probability if the the market enters the flat time of the day. For market trends, I match a stock against the SPY, S&P e-mini and the appropriate ETF (i.e., if I am trading CHK, I will watch the XLE). Best of luck to you, the key is discipline on this, and the willingness to let the trade ride for awhile. Of course, a trader will recognize a major intra-day direction change and exit with some profit if that happens.
So you wait until the stock has broken out twice? I have been tracking 15 minute opening range for a month or so. Have you considered using Averaged Daily Range to decide wether or not to take a stock? Do you mainly take ones that are trending the same direction as the market?
I posted these videos on another thread but I think they are more appropriate here. This is a seminar Mark did at the NYMEX in 2003 where Paul Tudor Jones and Boone Pickens both spoke at, although not on these videos. It's about 6 to 8 hours of video here. http://www.wavex.net.au/mf/fisher-1.wmv http://www.wavex.net.au/mf/fisher-2.wmv http://www.wavex.net.au/mf/fisher-3.wmv http://www.wavex.net.au/mf/fisher-4.wmv http://www.wavex.net.au/mf/fisher-5.wmv http://www.wavex.net.au/mf/fisher-6.wmv
Thanks for posting these. Been looking for them. Not that they are very useful but I'm sort of a fan of that guy. What's really useful from the whole "logical trader" stuff is that it's quite important to have reference points on the chart. Without them the market just looks like messy random noise that makes no sense. As soon as you start looking at certain points and try to understand what happens there, it becomes quite logical. Not that particular reference points are significant in a broad sense, for each his own. For me with a work experience and mindset of engineering and exact sciences it was very hard to form a framework in this very probabilistic, discretionary and ambiguous setting (the market). But the reference points were where the light went on.
This was an amazingly empty post: spent a lot of time, couldn't teach it, we make it work but don't want to talk about it nor evidence this, but we do make a lengthy post talking around it suggests the whole thing is suspiciously false.
Has there been any discussion by the NYSE or other groups on when stocks will be traded 24/7 and the US open and 'RTH' is no longer significant? The open is also very important to me.
There is nothing to be suspicious about as I'm not selling anything. I simply made a comment. You can choose to believe anything you want, one of the benefits to having a free mind. Mark Fisher's resume speaks for himself.