and Labor Day! http://www.markdcook.com/index.cfm?page=Cook's-Views-From-The-Barnyard-2009- Cook's Views From The Barnyard 2009 I frequently gaze out over our farm land that stretches in every direction from my trading office. I am prone to pontificating and that vision of the land definitively separates fantasy from reality. My outlook and forecasts for 2009 are based on viewing reality not fantasy as successful traders are able to discern the difference. My first outlook is dealing with the everyday headlines of "will the Tarp save the economy?" The Tarp will become a nonentity by late 2009 as other realities will take forefront. Economic downturns take time to wade out of the muck. We will not see any appreciable upturn this year in our economy. The fact is that by year end inflation will be a greater concern than job loss. It is the worst scenario to lose your job and have to rely on Savings which is worth less in buying power. The fact 2 is that credit cards will be viewed with increasing disdain by businesses as 'cash will be king'! Discounts will be offered for cash and some businesses will finally refuse plastic altogether. The fact 3 is that by year's end when you hear the word green it will make you see red. America became great because of our natural resources that have been tapped for over 3 centuries. It is our ace that will save America. 2009 will become the turning point from consumption to production in both frugality and work ethic. This means the 8 hour work day is history. Blue collar mentality will die a violent death as unions will be the bane of every one's view. People will no longer look for a job but will create their own jobs. Wide spread job creation will be done in homes by entrepreneur people. Green should mean use what God allows to have and get that bail-out hand back on your shovel and 'work'. The fact 4 is that the big explosion in day trading will be evident. Now it will be out of necessity and hunger. This environment spawns growth careers as it become more evident that the Buy and Hold credo of the big brokerage firms died with Merrill Lynch. It is no coincidence that the Merrill Lynch logo of the bull slaughtered them. An irony where the bull slaughtered humans in a blood bath not seen in years. The fact 5 is that agriculture will be a very lucrative industry that will be a dot.com fever pitch that could last for decades. The next big shortage will be food not energy. There is literally too much fuel. There is also too much appetite as is literally too much fuel. There is also too much appetite as the average American has 'Done Lops' disease. This is where the belly done lops over the belt as obesity is the health plague of America akin to the middle ages germ infested death knells. The cure will indeed have to be lack of food, less calories available and Twinkie addiction eradication. The fact 6 is that the stock market will have a gargantuan upside move between now and labor day. It will not bring us to the old highs of October 2007 but will give the baby boomers hope their 401-K is okay, it is not. Shortly, after the rally is completed the market will become sideways and volatility can be seen ebbing away. This is a trader's delight similar to 1992 and 1993 where a great scalp trader will make money with small risk and much fun. Anyone who is afraid of the market now must do a 180 as this could be the year that you can retire; wealthy, healthy and carefree. You have a job you created as a professional trader and you will understand why the market does what it does. My closing remarks for this outlook 2009 forecast is that I will predict an absolutism. Those who follow rules of trading, control their emotions, master the craft and work hard should achieve triple digit percentage returns in 2009. Mark Dennis Cook has never been more excited about a trading environment than 2009 could be. Get the fever!
The first part of the quote above shows that this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. The idea that anything other than convenience stores or single-employee operations will refuse major credit cards by the end of the year is ridiculous. Second warning sign is when he refers to himself in the third person (if that's in fact a part of the article he wrote). No legitimate commentator will ever do that, especially using the middle name as well.
One year of good rains and other good farming conditions will alleviate all the hyperbole about food shortages. I'll never accept claims of peak anything anymore given that humans have an incredible capacity to cut back on anything from fuel to alcohol to cigarettes to gambling, and yes, even food, when the need arises.
Thats a lot of bold predictions to make when the market itself doesnt know anything(as shown by VIX levels) plus we are in uncharted territory
The fact 2 is that credit cards will be viewed with increasing disdain by businesses as 'cash will be king'! Discounts will be offered for cash and some businesses will finally refuse plastic altogether. Ok, it sounds like the guy is just thinking up stuff to write. I have a business and most people pay with plastic but most are cards that take money strait out of their bank accounts. Isn't that the same as cash? I would actually rather have them pay with a debit card than a check anyway. What is the point of fact 2?
Huh? Please tell us when there hasn't been optimal growing conditions. The bull ag argument and it's a good one is that after years of record yields grain carry over is still abysmal. And there's no such thing as "alleviating." You could have a drought this year or next. Or the year after. Or consecutive years. Or a drought one and a freeze the next. Bottom line: Global consumption is so pitched there's no room to maneuver if there is indeed a weather accident.
Your criticisms notwithstanding, Mark Cook is one of the traders interviewed in Stock Market Wizards. Won several trading championships, I used to read stuff by him in Barrons regularly back in the 70s and 80s. On the other hand, I never heard of you. LOL! I wonder who has more credibility? OldTrader
If you don't think that weather can have a marked affect on food prices then look back to 2007 in the early summer. The monsoonal like floods experienced in Texas and great plains caused SEVERE reductions in wheat yields. Prices skyrocketed. I got caught long corn short wheat as did some other people I talked to. Wheat was the leader that early summer. Keep your eyes on the droughts in HRW country. Carry is tightening a bit. The state I'm located in (WYO) has been in a pretty severe drought for 8-10 years and it has impacted the price of alfalfa pretty heavily in SE Laramie county where I am located. So droughts definitely aren't moot point. Especially when it concerns crops that we all need to survive, i.e corn and wheat.