The New York Stock Exchange announced in March of 2000 that margin debt was at 278.5 billion dollars. The severity of the decline was felt like a tidal wave by mid April of 2000. The New York Stock Exchange announced in February 2007 that the margin debt was an all-time record 285.6 billion dollars. Is another tidal wave already speeding toward the shore line? I think so! http://www.markdcook.com/index.cfm?page=Commentary-10:-2/23/2007
<i>My favorite phrase of the ignorant and stupid is, "This time its different."</i> It's never different. Always the same
Cook may be right this time, but he has been very bearish for quite some time and missed a lot of the up move. Read some of his earlier posts.
I believe it was the same way in 2000. He was bearish for months before the collapse. Back then he said his indicator was usually early.
A52, I remember in 2000 when he made that prediction. He was spot on. I am not into"predicting" markets but his concern has raised an eyebrow here.
The always the same part: S&P drops about 30% on average during recession period. Average recession period: 9 months.
Are stock Gurus and market vendors the greatest marketing and sales people in the world or not? They can write copy like selling metric conversion tables to European honey bees populating the U.S. On the same page and just below where he outlines his $400 a month advisory service he just wants to selll you his version of the kitchen sink: Grammar for Professionals - $25.00 ... The handbook will be sent to you postage paid in punched pages so that you may add your own loose leaf notebook to complete the handbook. Order your copy as soon as you read this. http://www.markdcook.com/index.cfm?page=Advisory
================= Probably right; and although notice he was quote''lone bear'' last November; about time for him to be right. However quite timely February commentary-2-23-07; ES/SPY still MUCH below 50dma, 20 day candle chart down is down. Weak rally; [and i like high probibility uptrends], havent seen any lately.