Margo, Thank you for posting - can we assume that you'll let us know how ALL trades work out, not just winners? I am very much in tune with your setup style, it is similar to my own for swings... Also may I ask how many shares you normally commit to any one position and normally how many positions do you keep open? (In other words how diverse?) Respectfully, Paul
Market, I don't care what kind of feedback this journal gets. As I previously mentioned, I will only respond as time permits. Unfortunately, my time is thin as I have a lot of other stuff going on in my life. As far as the market is concerned, I'll offer my humble opinion. For the past couple of years, the market has gone into whipsaw mode after each and every breakdown. It's like a big rubber band that gets stretched too far (short term) and it snaps back (bounce). The bottom feeders see this, get optimistic, and think they've missed the bottom so they buy into it only to see it abruptly end at which they get scared and sell. IMO, these bounces are nothing to mess with and best left to the scalpers. A little green on the charts and people think we've bottomed. NOPE. Having said that, this whipsaw mode will likely continue and the only objective thing a trader can do is let the charts reset into something tradeable. The typical scenario with these types of rallies is for them to whip back and forth and work themselves into some type of rising wedge pattern back to strong resistance. That's when it becomes objective again. For me, the point to re-enter the market primarily from the long side will be once a CLEAR uptrend has been established. Until that occrurs, we are in a clear downtrend with periodic bounces or interuptions in the downtrend. An uptrend will be easily recognized IF ALL the indices start putting in valid bullish patterns.......breakout of those patterns......and make their measurements. In other words, I will not come close to catching the bottom. A trader that thrives on picking a bottom is back at home living with his/her parents. I also don't want there to be any confusion as far as my personal method is concerned. Again, I'm a swing trader and my primary focus is on the daily & weekly charts. I AM NOT a daytrader. I don't trade for nickels or 1/2s. I take high reward / low risk trades. I'm not subjective. For example, if I short OBJECTIVE resistance, I'm gone for a small loss if its violated. If I buy OBJECTIVE support, I'm gone for a small loss if its violated. Simple. Sure, I get stopped out A LOT more than I like but the cost of a commission is a small price to pay for a low risk entry. Every setup I've posted may be wrong and they all might fly through resistance. However, any pain I feel will be minimal. Why? Because I'll be out. Until that occurs, I'm going to stick to what has been objective all year and that's been to trade around key S/R levels.
QQQBALL, I'm lacking in the intelligence arena so I can only focus on 1 thing at a time. If it's not simplified down to a gnats ass, I'm setting myself up to lose money. The charts are the only guide I need.....so far anyway. I don't read news....I watch re-runs of Seinfeld during the trading day.....and I don't search for others opinions.
Slapshot, I intend on doing that. I don't want anyone to think that I trade more than a handful of stocks at a time. If I'm trading more than 6 stocks, I do not have large positions.....probably 200 - 300 shares.....sometimes 100.....particulary when the charts are erratic or aren't lined up together. When everything (NDX, SPX, INDU, BTK, SOX, DRG, OSX) IS lined up together and look the same, that's when I load the boat. Pull the chart of each going back to September & October 2001 and you will see what I'm talking about.
margo, some nice set-ups on the wedges. are you using a scanning program or do you trade the same stocks over and over as the rattle around in the channel/wedge? or, do you just can charts or look for volume scans or pattern scans, i.e., doji? exit points: do you intend to exit 100% at the opposite S/R of a chanel/wedge, or do you take say 50% and look for a breakout/breakdown? or, do you look for a 4th or 5th test of the S/R to be more likely to breakout/breakdown and adjust you exit strategy accordingly. nice set-ups. good risk/reward. how much wiggle above/below S/R are you typically giving it. not too snoopy i hope - im just self-taught and i dont interact much with other traders. TIA
QQQBALL, I use TC2000. I have some simple scans that I look over every night which takes a couple of hours. Basically, I look for specific patterns that I feel comfortable trading......H&S, triangles, wedges, flags, etc. etc.. I'm not smart enough to understand what a dogi is. The only candlestick patterns I'm familiar with and trade are the 3 inside days. As a rule of thumb, I normally get out of at least 1/2 of any position I take when I'm up 1 1/2 - 2 points and I reset my stop to my entry. As you may have figured out by now, I'm not comfortable with risk and I like to win. As far as what I keep, I'll either get stopped out at breakeven or I'll hold it for the measurement....assuming of course it doesn't setup into another pattern. As far as wiggle room, it depends on the setup. For example, I'll give a lot of room to the ABFS setup I posted last week. On the other hand, I'll give SYMC a 1/4...no more than a 1/2th. Again, I can't say exactly what I do because I don't have hard rules. I guess it's more of a common sense thing than anything else.
This is a weekly chart that appears to be getting ahead of itself. I'm going to short any rally as close to the top of the wedge as I can.
Another weekly chart that I'm going to short on a rally up to the neckline. It's a huge head & shoulder pattern with a measurement down to $14.00.
Yet another weekly chart that appears to be approaching the shoulder highs of the h&s pattern. It's hard to say exactly where I'll short.....somewhere between $58.00 - $60.00. I may wait for a 60 minute lower high before I go in with a stop set at the highs of the same period.