I will short this on a rally from here in the $47.00 area. It has risk over the short / interemediate term in the mid 30s.
I took a short position in this Friday at $35.05. I'll add to it Monday if it snaps up to the upper trendline. As mentioned last week, I lack subjectivity at times. In other words, I'm blowing it on a move over the upper line. The cost of a commission and a low risk entry is a small price to pay for a low / no risk entry.
I've traded around this for a couple of months. I will short it once again on a move up to the trendline. It has risk over the intermediate term in the $12.00 area. FWIW, i write down every single trade i do at the end of the day or before.......the risk / reward, anticipated holding period and where the sector chart was at. As a trader, I realize that there are often opportunities within the market daily, therefore, I impose strict trading rules as they relate to risk / reward potential. When I impose a risk / reward ratio of at least 1/5 or greater, I make less impulsive decisions and trade mostly at strong resistance or support. Lets face it, daytrading is NOT what it used to be, i see few acceptable risk / reward setups on the intraday charts. Therefore, I've regressed to daily and weekly charts to find adequate risk / reward setups. I'm not saying daytading isn't still alive, its just that the days of 10 and 15 point MEASUREABLE swings in the intraday charts are likely gone.
I may be wrong with this one, but it's not a breakout I'm going to buy into.....too many gaps. I went short a small piece at the upper wedge line Friday ($41.70) and may add to it on another low volume move up. As long as it stays under the wedge line, I'll feel comfortable holding it. It has risk to the lower 30s.
I've traded around this one for months. I will look to short at the upper trendline. Head and Shoulder pattern measures to $39.00 over the intermediate term.
It is rare to see ANYTHING move over a vertical key MA like this and stick. Even if it does for a day or two, it means NOTHING. So, I'll either short at the 50 MA itself or I'll wait for a lower high on the 60 minute chart with a stop set at those highs.
Just wondering what kind of feedback/discussions you'd like, if any. I happen to agree completely with trend trader. That said, its easy to see where your method normally works. I just think we are in for a bit of a swing up (a bit) and I'll short like crazy again in the near future. I'd draw trend lines with a fatter pencil for a while.
Just thought I'd add that this is the first my first visit to the journal area and yours is the first thread I've read. I don't listen to tv and all the rest. I usually don't want to know what others are doing. But , I opened one of your charts and I saw that your approach is real close to mine so hence my being here.
margo, thanks for posting - are you looking for comments? i dont have TV and only read IBD. seems to help... need a real-time news source though... i was massively short on both inter-meeting rate cuts - looked like green rockets all across the board. didnt need the news that day to tell me my cover-stops were all gonna be hit!