When you say free, if you are asking if you can't lose money, it looks like 'if" you can get this off at the place I simulated your max loss without fees is about $200. These markets are very wide and you will have fees. The risk/reward looks good if you can get this on at the right price. IF> >>, This is also a very narrow range for ES so the odds of being near 2900 are low. You have to take expectancy into account too. IMO- Risk/reward good. Odds of a win, low. Odds of getting done near this price low.
Yes, I DO. I'm not allowed to provide trading advise expect general stuff. The spread you set up should be executed IF you can get the right price AND you expect the Index to move toward 2900 and stay there until July AND it fits your account profile for risk. You should never look at any option strategy from the point of view, I want to do a FLY. You need to make assumptions about where you expect the symbol to trade or not trade and an assumption about volatility and current prices. THEN, look at current option prices to see what best fits your assumptions and account profile. Bob
I also can’t say what I’m doing exactly as I’m not a licensed trader but the only thing that will kill that fly is volatility as long as IV stays down it’s very good
a) What the heck does that mean? There is no "licensed trader." However, even if you were a Registered Rep (S7), or an Investment Adviser Rep (S65), or Securities Trader Rep (S57)...there is nothing that precludes you from illustrating any trade that you may be doing personally. b) try breaking a wing off of your fly structures. c) get closer to expiry if you're seeking Gamma exposure.