first off,2 fed guys made some hawkish remarks. also,oil went over 60 a barrel. however,the yield on the 10 year went up big time and that is bad for stocks. finally,if anyone has'nt noticed,home lending stocks have been hammered due to concerns about a martgage implosion. lots of the subprime lenders are announcing that they underestimated defaults on motgages they wrote..personally,i think wall street is on drugs when they say housing is bottoming.i think it has at least another leg down and the market senses this. also,MU(Micron Tech) issued some nasty news about flash chips which hurt tech. flash is important because all those gadgets that fueled the tech rally use flash chips..if the NAZ breaks 2440 monday on a closing basis,ithe naz has nade a double top and its gonna get ugly.take quick profts and scalp,don't try and be a hero and attempt to bottom fish and start talking valuation and that other nonsense that has nothing to do with trading. hitman
Are you Bob Piss-ani in disguise? Just trade what's on your screen... "It is not well to be too curious about all the reasons behind price movements." - Jesse Livermore
i do just trade on my screen. its just that someone inquired as to why the market was down today...i can care less where the market goes,i'll trade in any environment/
Todays weakness came mainly from the fact that China's Zhou said that China was unlikely to exceed 8% GDP growth this year. The world knows that China, India and other EMs have been the gasoline for the fire of Global growth the last few years and this deceleration is a concern. Also the fact that they are making moves to devalue their currency is going to be inflationary for the US, putting pressure on profit margins and further reducing the ability of the US consumers to spend enough to keep the music playing). Other factors cited did not help ofcourse. Subprime is not hurting too bad just yet because there is so much money looking for the CDOs that it is keeping spreads tight even in the face of the obviously mispriced risk (one or more of the Feds said as much today). At some point it will matter, when the lie of housing bottoming is obvious to all (zillow says that prices for my area of Boston metro is down 5% in the last 30 days and these guys have been talking about a bottom for the last few months) but things may come to a head long before then if the EMs take a tumble. Money is pouring in to EMs too fast and their governments want to protect themselves against a boom-bust scenario and especially against massive hot money outflow if 1st liquidity starts to shrink. Brazil is a case in point. They could easily take measures to tighten liquidity and if enough of them do it will matter http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/02/09/afx3413457.html http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=apQ_Ncu7KupU&refer=news
Seasonal weakness, sector rotation going on now, trade off the daily chats, get ready for a surprise, remember buy when the bombs start falling...
This world is awash in liquidity. The only thing you should be thinking about (hoping for) is a good pullback to buy, mortgage your house type buying. This is 2007/1987 you better believe we are in a major melt up. Once we melt up to the point where everyone is in, then you can talk about shorting.