Zero Hedge making doomsday claims or promoting gold... Is the reason they exist... There have been pretty much dead wrong for 18 months... PermaBears are wrong 90% of the time.
what is doomsday. Euro countries default on debt..nobody will lend you money. or US default of debt..nobody will lend US money. that isn't doom that is reality. unemployment is 15% inflation is 5% interest rates is 7%. unemployment in south africa is 25%.. as for the stock market or trading it's just like the casino industry..market participation si down..few market participants want to gamble or take risk. hence low volume..it's seems like trading is done by HFT machines
The 111th Congress of the US put us in more debt than the previous 100 Congresses combined. Literally. At some point, like a computer, we'll have to re-boot the entire economic/political system.
Is your only evidence for a supposed decrease in manufacturing the loss of manufacturing jobs? Because if so that is an extremely faulty argument. The manufacturing sector of the United states has shed 3 million jobs over the course of the last 3 decades. Down to 13-14 million from 17 million. However, production capacity has never decreased. If you don't think that technology is replacing manufacturing jobs then you aren't paying attention. Modern manufacturing takes far less unskilled labor as it did in previous generations. These 3 million displaced workers account for 1% of the population and roughly 3-4% of the working population. These jobs are not coming back. This shift is not China's fault, its not globalism's fault, its technology. In the end manufacturing will go the way of agriculture. Our goods will be produced in obscure locations by a minimal amount of people guided by technology. Our society must continue to invest in and maintain our amazing production capabilities while discovering new and ingenious areas for growth. I couldn't tell you what the next big thing will be. Before the computer, no one could have imagined how advances in magnetic storage would change the world. That is exponential growth, humans can only imagine linearly. The next big discovery could be just around the corner. So can we stop whining, get competitive, and start acting like Americans again?
I really like your answer but have little confidence in our politicians to choose the right solution. I'm not trying to be a panic monger, but with our debt to GDP ratio growing, more shrinkage in the denominator could push us to critical levels. The belief in a stronger economy going forward is a very crowded trade right now. My concern is that it may be over believed. Blessed are the pessimists for they are never disappointed. As you said, I'll just keep my faith in the right One whatever happens. He never promised it would be easy.
the US is the next ireland and greek default on debt. no lenders. or not enough lenders. either the gov't cut deficits or FED has to print money to cover the deficits further destroying the dollar....the destruction of a countries currency is the first symptom of economic demise..foreign investment flee countries with falling dollar and interest rates skytrocket to 10% it isnt' doomsday that is reality for third world countries..food,energy cost would be 50% of income and just lower standards of living AND gov't services cut..no welfare no free healthcare...no free public education...no corporate welfare...that is the reality in many third world countries...of too much debt and can't borrow money in the debt markets or interest rates too high for sustain debt payments.
The average retail investor is still on the side lines. That is the biggest clue you have that this expansionary period is for real. Your analysis on treasuries is inaccurate. An increase in long term treasury yields indicates capital flowing out of safe havens and into higher yielding more productive assets. Last time I checked that's a good thing for the economy. Yes, it forces government to deal with the debt situation. IMO, this is also a good thing. The administrations tax proposal has a great deal of potential to fix this situation. It will also, most likely, have republican support. So please, continue being a pessimist, I'd rather be a part of the solution.
You must have slept thru the past decade. You keep emitting soundbites straight out of the late 1990's. "Retail investors on the sidelines", eh, you're kidding right? We are past the demographic curve that made those arguments worthwhile. The retail investor is withdrawing money heading into retirement years AND to replace the loss in interest income our new found monetary religion of perpetual ZIRP. Higher interest rates in a normalized economy might agree with your analysis, but again, you are a decade late with your platitudes. Nowadays, higher rates directly impacts the world's lender of last resort, and lately, of only resort. You are the last in line of a dying breed, namely the blind optimist. Sorry, but that time has come and gone, and this country should and will awaken to reality.
If the average retail investor is still on the sidelines, it must be because he doesn't have any cash. The cash positions of mutual funds hit an all-time low in July and remains at low levels. What are you using to measure the "average retail investor" cash position? I don't think incomes have exactly been growing like gangbusters and unemployment is still near 10%. Real unemployment is even higher. Also, the American Association of Individual Investor's survey shows an extremely high level of bullish attitude for that survey and it's a pretty well-respected study. I would tend to think that when individual investors are very bullish, they're probably already in the market awaiting those great returns. Otherwise, they're not putting their money where their mouths/outlooks are, which would be quite unusual, I would think. If one is bullish, why would one be on the sidelines? As for what you said about the meaning of rising long term Treasury rates, I agree. However, in my book, a confirmed up trend in long term Treasury rates has yet to be established. Still nearly everybody believes that rates are headed for a mighty up trend. I say, not so fast. Here we have yet another crowded trade. The contrarian in me makes me wary. In fact, recovery is so firmly believed that I can't help but think it's all premature. I'll be happy and relieved if my concerns are proven wrong.