So the market will go up for the next 8 years too? Time to bet the house and kids? What if bonds do hit those lows as you've said, but the reason happens to be because inflation spikes up more than anyone has expected...how will stocks react to that?
The problem sometimes is that you don't get a second chance. I think lots of people say they were missing the rally during all of February because they had no chance of getting in, no pullback, or whatever else they wait for. If the selling is even already deep, is that a better time to short? I know I was expecting some sort of test of 2300 after breaking above and it never came. Maybe coming down from 2400 to 2300 will be the test!
If recent market history is any guide, you can expect it to either happen in one trading session or not at all.
I respectfully disagree. Legitimate prognostication in macro terms (as Fabre implies macro selling) demands macro targets - which 2300 is certainly not; it's a channel range target and nothing more.
The First Rule of Trading...is to ignore everyone's Opinion Think of everyone out there as a dumb, evil sheep,
you are implying a rally continuance. You push into atmospheric levels - sexy. Personally, I haven't a clue.
Mostly I'm just using 2016 as a guide. The only real downside we saw following the lows in February (600 S&P points lower than here) were Brexit and election night. i.e. they are essentially binary type events. September 9th was basically the only intra-day serious decline and that was completely reversed the following Monday.
Anybody who has followed this type advice and learned from their mistakes, no longer listens to these predictions. One time I foolishly drank the doomsday cool-aid , sold everything and went short , then as the market slowly rose against me, I stupidly added more shorts impending the sure crash . You know the story, I finally coughed up everything for a big loss and it took 6 plus months to regain the hit. When the market finally " crashed " it was a 10% or so pullback. If I had simply let my original position winners run, my account would have been up over 50%. All markets will correct, and predictions will never quit coming. But you will never see any coverage on the graveyard of the trading accounts that traded these forecasts.