I think he hit it right there. It's not a question of inflation OR deflation. It's deflation THEN inflation that is coming. What I am trying to figure out is whether home prices will be included in the coming inflation. By definition yes, but I can't see people able to by homes unless wages inflate. So will wages inflate as well? If yes...cash is trash.
So what, write options make money. Keep the volatility going so we can milk this options cow till end of 08 hopefully.
but wait! Didnt' their diligent research show that removing the uptick rule and simultaneously getting rid of 80A collar would have no effect on volatility whatsoever? They proved it right?
Martin Armstrong figured out that market interventions only serve to add to volatility. He's probably right... and then they wonder why we trade short term!!
also agree on the first deflation, then inflation stuff. But he should be able to calculate that a 20% move from 739 does not equal 1100 but less than 900. What people should keep in mind is that advisers who "saw this all coming" do not necessarily can predict the future moves any better than an ape throwing darts. The reason is that at every stage of the bull market there have tons of people been around who "saw the crash coming". Now the crash has come these people are picked and interviewed, but imo its worthless like interviewing cramer or any other stock analyst. Its all waist of time.