Exactly. I'll even go as far as saying, I hope this Obamination of a president starts talking, like Clintion was, about taking a portion of people's 401(k) plans for distribution to the Looters & Moochers. That'll get your average joe to think twice about ever voting for another socialist/liberal again. The Republicans screwed Conservatives and Libertarians last time around and they better wake up in 2010. So far, I see NO plan to get my vote.
There is the story of an economist in 1932 who was growing more and more pessimistic as the country slid deeper and deeper into the depression. Seeing his mood a student asked him "but just how bad can it actually get". He looked at the young man and said simply "The Dark Ages". Societies, continents and even entire eras that are very poorly led and managed leave themselves at greater risk than most can imagine. In 1935 very few people thought Europe would have 30,000,000 dead and an unfathomable slice of their populace destitute within 10 years. The political leadership in the US and in many other countries is dismal. My crystal ball is still in the shop so I won't predict what will happen. Yet it is undeniable that we are heading down some very dangerous paths. As far as I am concerned it is far from an out bet that our current path leads mankind to lose faith in currencies and other paper assets. If the dollar and/or other currencies are not perceived as reliable stores of value then the sky is the limit. Human beings will always seek a reliable "currency". Historically, when it is not paper then precious metals fill the gap until a political and economic structure develops that people have faith in. At that point people become willing to deal in the new paper because they believe in the society that issues it. The question is not "who would you sell gold to" in the chaos before a new currency has the confidence of the people, the question is under that circumstance why would anyone trade it for the old paper. Hint -- they wouldn't.
After reading his comments, I emailed Marc Faber offering to take the other side of $/⬠forwards for 2020, at a price of 10 dollars per euro. As an alternative I offered US $/Zimbabwe $ forwards at an exchange rate of parity, again as he predicted earlier this year. The offer is also open to anyone else who thinks the US $ is going to "zero" or going to end up like the Zimbabwean currency within a long-term investment time horizon (i.e. within 10 years). Furthermore, I informed him that as a long-time Gloom Boom Doom subscriber, I would cancel my subscription if he did not take the other side of at least one of those trades, and said I was unhappy with the recent BS snake-oil hyperbole he is peddling on bubblevision and the blogosphere, as - surprising though this may sound - I originally subscribed to get solid investment recommendations based on valuation and market analysis, not tips on insincere credibility-incinerating fame whoring, headline grabbing, or viral newsletter marketing. I will let you know how he replies.
Good for you, mate. I'm interested in hearing the reply. And good to see you're back, even if it's in ethereal form.
The dollar has lost 50% of its value in the last ten years. Not rocket science, just look at what a dollar bought vs. buys now. Faber's forecast is doable, but unlikely, since according to the DOW's disconnect with the dollar, anything is possible. One reason I increased my physical gold delivery and reduced my dollar holdings.
I think you're being unfair and ignore the rest of the things Faber says. Faber does BOTH. He makes short term recommendations and long term predictions. Back in March, he said the market was oversold, and it was ready to take off again. He also makes frequent stock picks, lately, Intel being one of them. Just because he says that ultimately the (fiat) system will collapse in the future doesn't void his current advice. You think he's pandering, I think, he's one of the few that is honest about it long term. Just a difference in opinion, I know. I'm sure Faber's bank account is a bit more hefty than yours. He won't miss your canceled subscription.
Cold, a better investment in time would be to cease creating aliases on ET, log off, and seek the support of your local psychiatrist.
Awesome! Going forward, I expect to see a slow grinding uptrend in gold, eventually peaking in an orgasm-spike top. Instead of just buying and holding, I'll be constantly adjusting my position size; Buying more on dips, and lightening up whenever we get near the top of the channel.
Your point is completely valid. Anticipating the dollar's demise is one thing, but actually cheering & rooting for it to happen is the dominion of short-sighted fools. Nobody would truly benefit from that. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2622271> (Except for this guy)