Well that stupidity seems to be approaching fast.. I agree about the spike top, but believe it's still a few more years and thousands of $ away. In my view we're just about halfway through a 16+ year bull market. The price of gold has about quadrupled since the 2001 bottom, and it could very well quadruple again. But as in the 1970s, there could be a few years waiting time before the last spike leg even begins. I've been trying to day-trade gold but with very little success. It seems gold is too much affected by EUR/USD, oil and the index futures. I would like to see gold move much more independently, which I think will happen when we finally get the next bull market leg going. As to the R/R, was just wondering what's your scale both in time and price. Already "all-in", or still lots of room to build a bigger position? And timewise your target is months away? Now that the euro is down to a new low (1.453), but gold is not (1116), I'm seeing the first signs of bottoming. Could start building a longer-term position (than just a day trade) right here, especially as a hedge against my short EUR/USD.
No, I'm pretty sure the top in this decade-long bull market is near in time (probably within 18 months tops), but not in price. I went to the bank to do a wire transfer (unrelated to bullion) a couple weeks ago, and the banker commented on how she's seen a recent flood of outgoing wire transfers for gold bullion purchases. Tech stocks had 1999, gold bullion has 2009. Some patterns are timeless. This little Colbert piece says it all: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=185690
That Colbert piece only focuses on the BUYING end. What about the individual level SELLING end? There is a GIANT market for middle/lowermiddle class/poor people selling their gold well under spot. Wouldn't this ultimately depress the gold market or at least cool off the exchange regulated/monitored markets for gold? And this has been going on for awhile now. People are selling gold in droves to pay property taxes, bills, etc... What happens when the lower classes exhaust a good part of their gold in order to pay for their bills? Don't forget, many of them no longer have credit cars to live on... now they're raiding whatever jewlery they have. For every Goldline type ad I see, I probably see 2-3 ads targeting people to sell their old "useless" jewelry. In my view, this is not the most efficient commodity market in terms of price discovery, and my bias is that gold is undervalued because of this - IMHO. Maybe I'm overestimating how many people need to sell their gold to pay bills? I don't know.
Interesting. In Europe I've seen no ads about buying gold, just about selling. Also, nobody I know is heavily invested in gold, only a few have even minor positions. And I have talked about gold for many years and to everybody. Gold bug I am. Would be amazed if we get a bubble here in 18 mths. But that's not bad at all - the sooner the better.
Hey, I know my credibility has been shattered because I've only been correct on my calls around 80% of the time, but right here, right now is another great entry point to get long gold. I just bought more. Current spot price: $1111.70 Looking to exit some when it trades ~$1145 in a few days, and holding the rest for longer term.
Sprott Inc. announces appointment of Marc Faber as Director (the "Corporation") is pleased to announce that the Board of Directors has appointed Marc Faber as a director and member of the Audit Committee. Dr. Faber is the Managing Director of Marc Faber Ltd., an investment advisory and fund management firm. He also acts as a director of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSX, NYSE, NASDAQ: IVN), an international mining company with operations focused on the Asia Pacific region, and as a director and advisor to a number of private investment funds. Dr. Faber publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletter entitled "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" and is the author of several books including "Tomorrow's Gold - Asia's Age of Discovery". He is a regular contributor to several leading financial publications around the world, including Barron's. Dr. Faber has over 35 years experience in the finance industry, including acting as manager of an investment bank in the U.S. where he routinely performed financial analysis on a range of companies. Dr. Faber received his PhD in Economics magna cum laude from the University of Zurich. "We are honoured and delighted to have someone with Marc's credentials join our Board. Marc is an internationally renowned expert and commentator on financial markets and we look forward to his contribution as a director of Sprott Inc.," said Eric Sprott, CEO of the Corporation. http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/January2010/19/c9709.html
Nice, here in Canada Sprott is a pretty big deal, they're really good. Of course they also have similar viewpoints on commodities, gold etc
Indeed, at least regarding gold.. I think the anti-dollar & inflation trade must die before gold gets really going again. We need to get all the weak inflationistas and commodities bulls to fold. The "dollar is dead" crowd must be proven wrong. I am afraid this process will take the entire year. One good sign would be for the correlation between gold and stocks to go negative. Another would be for oil to lose its contango. Unfortunately, neither seems to be happening any time soon. That said, I am buying here, spot $1065. There could be a bounce if the Greek-pressured euro gets a relief rally.
We had a +50% crash in commodities and a 30% crash in gold in 2008. There you had it, a big correction driving out the weak hands.