MARA

Discussion in 'Trading' started by wxytrader, Jul 26, 2025 at 11:17 PM.

  1. maxinger

    maxinger

    [​IMG]
    scary name
     
  2. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Ah yeah...already moving. Not sure there is enough meat left on the bone for this one...
     
  3. wxytrader

    wxytrader


    Thesis Summary:

    I’m expecting either a marginal beat or a miss — not a blowout. PM bounce likely absorbed most of the upside potential. If MARA breaks above $18.68, the EW sub count is invalidated, but that would require a strong beat, which seems unlikely.

    Meanwhile, downside risk remains open, with $15 in play on a miss or weak guide. MACD and wave structure both support a potential flush.

    ️ Strategy Evaluation:
    • Call fly: No longer worth it — upside mostly priced in.

    • Short put: Too risky now given downside is wide open.
    • Long put fly: Probably the best play but not liking the risk/profit.

    • Short put fly: Locks in the loss zone.
    Conclusion:
    The cleanest trade was on Friday with a simple atm short put — missed opportunity.
    I’ll sit this one out and wait for the next setup. No reason to force it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2025 at 9:53 AM
  4. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Well price back into the strike zone....