I went to the grocery store yesterday. They were having massive sales. All kinds of two for one stuff. The outcome of all this will be massive deflation and I am not basing that on grocery stores having sales. Real Estate has another 50% drop over the next 5 years.
Short bursts of deflation before massive inflation.. Look back at history. Rates are going to double digits.
A big player in commercial real estate is Kimco Realty, symbol KIM. I've been watching it for a long time hoping eventually to see it break down and it just recently did...For a long time it just kept going up during the bubble times but last week I was in Hampton Bays, NY and one of their shopping centers has a Macy's as a anchor but the rest of the shopping center looked damn near vacant... I wouldn't be surprised to see KIM finally falter big time. Down more today, Oct 15,2008... 4% or so..currently at $26.37 as I type this. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KIM
Remember those 'anchors' pay next to nothing. It's the out parcels and mom and pop stores they soak w/triple net leases. Very, very, very vulnerable to horrible levels, even bankrupty. And you know who owns the malls? Insurance companies. To the MAX.
Unemployment is already at 12%. Slick Willy changed how those numbers are figured, so the government figures underreport unemployment.
Agreed. A month ago I would have balked at that, but now that government has meddled further with the market correction, I have adjusted my prediction of DOW 7000 as a low to DOW 5000. They sure know how to make everything more complicated. For those with liquid, disposable income, the true bottom will be a great time to buy RE.
Don't know about Real Estate dropping as people maybe trying to buy hard assets that have already dropped 50% in many cases. At least in upstate(Putnam) NY it seems people have come back a little. I'm in a rented house and their have been more viewers then the early spring and summer. But yeah man, I was pointing out the massive sales to my friend, we were racking up lol. But I was saying to her how it will be hard to pay their employees if they can't make money. So let's see how things play out, but not looking good at all.
One year ago 8 packages of Top Ramen for $1.00. Six months ago 7 packages for $1.00 Now, 6 packages for $1.00. REITs are way down and dividend yields way up.