I do make all my positions equal-sized, but I pyramid the winners after they start showing good profits. As pyramid trades are added, the r:r becomes increasingly asymmetrical in my favour.
You can add size onto existing positions (whether they are winning or losing money) as long as you identify a suitable risk point. P.S. I never mentioned anything about having a "sure winner" btw.
Some thoughts: "Kelly" was developed as a signal-to-noise metric -- it was not intended to follow a specific wave, but the entirety of transmission. Kelly has been borrowed (and enjoyed!) for the entirety of trading: portfolio analysis. And Kelly is useful for overall strategies' evaluation, but the discussion in this thread is trying to telescope it down to positions already held. But when discussing positions, the only useful question is, "What is the best use of my capital, today?" -- which is to say, "going forward." "Don't be married to your position(s)." You've all heard that! Whether it's a winner or a loser, you have capital deployed. Is there a better place for that capital? If there is, then a Kelly-inspired, portfolio-imbued, decision rule says, "Go!" Look at the next position, not at the last. (thus concludeth dem thoughts, y'all.)
Charles Rane, played by Bruce Payne in Passenger 57 (1992) movie. I like to think of myself as a bad guy when I trade -- complete with theme music. Bad guys in movies are always generally smarter, and creepily calm and analytical. and logical and deep and witty. (while the good guy is basically a simple surface square) Managing winners...is sometimes a matter of changing your mindset, -- clear your mind to sense the greater picture of things unfolding,
%% Perfect sense; its a bull market up trend you know, even though its getting late in DEC.Even though once you get a comfy profit in a stock or ETF, like to tighten up stop a bit- the best trends on the long side trend tight above 50 dma. Some do NOT LOL
Yes its very mauch true that sometimes we become just too juch greedy ad in order to earn more profit we lose al the money. It is a case of not only in the stock market but also is evident in the forex market also. I am a fore trader and doing trading since 2016. I have seen it many times that a currency pair is in a god positive direction but in the hope of increasing price more and more, I have lost the whole money when market goes in the wrong direction just by suddenly.