Managing Options Debit Spread

Discussion in 'Options' started by grtrader, Jul 12, 2013.

  1. grtrader


    Hi, I am new to trading options. Here is my question:

    Suppose, I see that historically one particular stock's intermediate declines last about 6 months or more. Having said that there is a couple of 3-4 months declines.

    Suppose, I anticipate another intermediate term decline in the next 6 months and I thinking about opening a Bear Put Spread which is a debit spread.

    From here, there are a few possibilities:

    If there is no decline, I exit with a loss.
    If there is a decline that reaches the target (short put strike price) and lasts 6 months or more, the options in the spread get assigned and I exit with a profit.

    My question is this:
    What if the decline reaches the target in less than 6 months, say 3 months only and it is the bottom? In that case the short put does not get assigned, i.e. I am stuck with the spread.
    Will selling the spread give me a profit or its decay will only give me a loss?

    What are the factors to take into account before opening a Bear Bull Spread to increase the probability of exiting any time before expiration with a profit?